Price and Volatility Transmissions among Natural Gas, Fertilizer, and Corn Markets: A Revisit

Abstract

In this paper, we revisit price and volatility transmission among natural gas, fertilizer, and corn markets; an important issue was explored in previous work. An update of the results is urgently needed due to the recent enormous price volatility in the commodities, fertilizer, and energy markets. We followed the same methodology as previous work and used the vector error correction model and the multivariate generalized autoregressive heteroskedasticity model, but we adopted a new methodology to gather higher frequency data for fertilizer to estimate the interactions and examine the mechanisms between these market prices. Our results are consistent with previous research showing that natural gas price returns in the short-term are significantly affected by its lagged returns from itself and corn markets, and it will be affected by its lagged return sand fertilizer markets. However, we did not find a significant relationship among fertilizer, corn, and natural gas markets from May to November 2021. Moreover, the lagged conditional volatility of corn prices will affect the conditional volatility in the natural gas market but not vice versa.

Long-Term Robustness and Failure Mechanisms of Electrochemical Stripping for Wastewater Ammonia Recovery

“…Over a 20-year analysis time frame, ECS produced ammonium sulfate (as a 21 g/L N solution) at a cost of $34.40/kg N, which is about 16 times the North American commercial price of solid ammonium sulfate of $2.18/kg N (Figure A) . Despite the need for substantial cost reductions, ECS could help enhance global food security in the face of fertilizer price volatility caused by volatile energy prices and geopolitical disruptions affecting supply chains. − Since the early 2000s, the price of ammonium sulfate has risen at rates exceeding inflation (e.g., by 2.8 times from 2001 to 2014), and even more dramatic price changes (e.g., a 2.7-time increase from January 2021 to April 2022) have occurred in recent years (Figure S2-53). − ECS implementation in regions where fertilizers are more expensive or less accessible (e.g., sub-Saharan Africa) may be more economically viable and would improve equity in fertilizer access. ,, Product diversification toward higher-value products with more applications (e.g., NH 3 vs. (NH 4 ) 2 SO 4 ) and targeting multiple profitable uses for each chemical (e.g., (NH 4 ) 2 SO 4 as a reagent is about 4–5 times more valuable than as a fertilizer) could further improve process economics.…”

Volatility Spillovers among the Major Commodities: A Bibliometric Review

“…In addition, corn and natural gas show a similar relationship. According to the literature, the prices of these commodities show volatility when considered simultaneously from 1992 to 2014 (Chevallier and Ielpo 2013;Etienne et al 2016;Yang et al 2022). Then, there is a particular correlation between the…”

Phosphorus price spikes: A wake-up call for phosphorus resilience

“…Initiatives like the IFPRI fertilizer dashboard (IFPRI, 2023), and data gathering, and monitoring efforts provided by the United States Geological Survey (USGS, 2023), International Fertilizer Association (IFA, 2023), AfricaFertiliser (AFO, 2023), and The World Bank (The World Bank, 2023) could be linked to wider agricultural data portals, such as FAOSTAT (FAO, 2023), or information systems such as the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS, 2023). Importantly, the drivers behind, and implications of, market exposure need to be understood at the national level, ideally employing future projections to inform long-term planning (Yang et al, 2022). The framework for such assessments has been developed for other commodities, for example, the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2023) provides early warnings of market volatility and geographical exposure for energy commodities.…”