Phosphorus price spikes: A wake-up call for phosphorus resilience

Abstract

Food systems depend on reliable supplies of phosphorus to fertilize soils. Since 2020, a pandemic, geopolitical disputes, trade wars and escalating fuel prices have driven a >400% increase in phosphorus commodity prices, contributing to the current food crisis. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted phosphate trade further. Concurrently, phosphorus losses to freshwaters, through insufficient municipal wastewater treatment and inappropriate fertilizer use and land management practices, are a significant threat to water quality globally. Despite precariously balanced food and water security risks, nations are largely unaware of their “phosphorus vulnerability” and phosphorus is markedly absent in national and global policies addressing food and water security. Phosphorus vulnerability can be described as the degree to which people/systems are susceptible to harm due to the physical, geopolitical and socio-economic dimensions of global phosphorus scarcity and pollution. Here, we bring the current price spike into focus, highlighting the drivers, policy responses and their consequences. We highlight the need for an integrated assessment of phosphorus vulnerability that considers environmental, socio-economic and climate change risks across scales. We illustrate how reducing phosphorus waste, increasing phosphorus recycling, and wider system transformation can reduce national reliance on imported phosphorus, whilst enhancing food and water security. The current crisis in fertilizer prices represents a wake-up call for the international community to embrace the global phosphorus challenge.

Global-to-Local Dependencies in Phosphorus Mass Flows and Markets: Pathways to Improving System Resiliency in Response to Exogenous Shocks

“…For example, the Russia−Ukraine war impacted P trade flows and markets when Russia (the largest phosphate rock exporter by economic value in 2021 at $293M, followed by Egypt at $97M) 25 claimed that sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine impacted international shipping, and subsequently suspended fertilizer exports. 11 Policy making can also deliver shocks to the P system, where trade disputes offer an additional illustration of complex interdependencies disrupting the P fertilizer supply chain. For example, since 2020, the U.S., China, and other countries have engaged in protectionist trade policy decisions, which have contributed to P fertilizer price surges not observed since the 2008 financial crisis.…”

Self-Assembled Nanocoatings Protect Microbial Fertilizers for Climate-Resilient Agriculture

“…But these chemicals are unsustainable; , they damage the environment, , and they contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. , Further, agricultural runoff containing chemical fertilizers can enter surface and groundwater , and damage native ecosystems. , In addition to the environmental concerns, chemical fertilizer is costly, representing between 20% and 36% of a farm’s operating budget . In the past two years, chemical fertilizer prices have nearly tripled, climbing from $94 to $232 per acre of corn. , This cost impacts consumer food prices and can lead to decreased yields due to sub-optimal fertilizer application . These environmental and economic impacts necessitate alternative agricultural solutions; land for agriculture is a finite resource, and its long-term sustainable use is essential for food stability.…”

“…11 In the past two years, chemical fertilizer prices have nearly tripled, climbing from $94 to $232 per acre of corn. 12,13 This cost impacts consumer food prices and can lead to decreased yields due to sub-optimal fertilizer application. 11 These environmental and economic impacts necessitate alternative agricultural solutions; land for agriculture is a finite resource, and its long-term sustainable use is essential for food stability.…”

Sustainable lake restoration: From challenges to solutions

“…Also, global events may make use of nutrients recovered from lakes more feasible since the alternatives, using natural P and industrial N sources, are becoming more expensive or include politically difficult trading situations(Brownlie et al, 2022). The price of mineral P fertilizers is prone to remarkable fluctuations, including nearly tripling of the P rock price from 2020 to 2022, reaching the highest price for a decade in March 2022(Brownlie et al, 2023;Indexmundi, 2022). The reasons for the fluctuations are unclear but are thought to include geopolitical tensions (e.g., control of international trade and mineral access in disputed territories;Clayton, 2021;Dworkin, 2022;Karam, 2021), a constrained market (i.e., more than 70% of the global P rock originates from Morocco;Statista, 2022;Brownlie et al, 2022), and energy and transportation costs(Brownlie et al, 2023).…”

“…The price of mineral P fertilizers is prone to remarkable fluctuations, including nearly tripling of the P rock price from 2020 to 2022, reaching the highest price for a decade in March 2022(Brownlie et al, 2023;Indexmundi, 2022). The reasons for the fluctuations are unclear but are thought to include geopolitical tensions (e.g., control of international trade and mineral access in disputed territories;Clayton, 2021;Dworkin, 2022;Karam, 2021), a constrained market (i.e., more than 70% of the global P rock originates from Morocco;Statista, 2022;Brownlie et al, 2022), and energy and transportation costs(Brownlie et al, 2023). The situation with P rock availability and price has worsened in 2022 with the Russian military aggression in Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions against Russia and Belarus to the point where food security becomes jeopardized globally(Faulconbridge, 2022; GRO Intelligence, 2022;Kaviti et al, 2022) Hill (2022).…”