2019
DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2018.7621
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Prevention of Prescription Opioid Misuse and Projected Overdose Deaths in the United States

Abstract: Key PointsQuestionWhat is the projected effect of lowering incident nonmedical prescription opioid use on the future trajectory of the opioid overdose crisis in the United States?FindingsIn this system dynamics model study, under current conditions, the opioid overdose crisis is expected to worsen—with the annual number of opioid overdose deaths projected to reach nearly 82 000 by 2025, resulting in approximately 700 000 deaths from 2016 to 2025. Interventions focused on lowering the incidence of prescription … Show more

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Cited by 235 publications
(186 citation statements)
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References 29 publications
(41 reference statements)
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“…While judicious opioid prescribing may be associated with better outcomes among the opioid-naive, the same may not be true for those with a history of opioid dependence and/or addiction, particularly if reduced access to prescription opioid analgesics leads to substitution with riskier illicit opioids such as heroin and fentanyl [25,28,30,42]. While there is a general consensus that increased opioid prescribing initiated the recent epidemic of opioid addiction and overdose, focusing solely on opioid prescribing patterns is unlikely to stem the tide of opioidrelated harm [5,14,26,27,29,43]. Consistent with this idea, even among the opioid-naive individuals in this study, fentanyl was present at autopsy among nearly half of those who died of an opioid overdose, while approximately a quarter had alcohol, cocaine and/or marijuana as coingestants at the time of death.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…While judicious opioid prescribing may be associated with better outcomes among the opioid-naive, the same may not be true for those with a history of opioid dependence and/or addiction, particularly if reduced access to prescription opioid analgesics leads to substitution with riskier illicit opioids such as heroin and fentanyl [25,28,30,42]. While there is a general consensus that increased opioid prescribing initiated the recent epidemic of opioid addiction and overdose, focusing solely on opioid prescribing patterns is unlikely to stem the tide of opioidrelated harm [5,14,26,27,29,43]. Consistent with this idea, even among the opioid-naive individuals in this study, fentanyl was present at autopsy among nearly half of those who died of an opioid overdose, while approximately a quarter had alcohol, cocaine and/or marijuana as coingestants at the time of death.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Opioid‐related overdoses in the United States resulted in approximately 48 000 deaths in 2017, primarily from illicitly manufactured fentanyl . Even with supply‐side solutions such as reductions in prescription opioid prescribing factored in, one research team has predicted that 700 000 people will die between 2016 and 2025 from opioid overdose . These increases have led to a rarely observed multiple year decline in life expectancy, and overdose is the leading cause of death in people less than 55 years old .…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…4 Even with supply-side solutions such as reductions in prescription opioid prescribing factored in, one research team has predicted that 700 000 people will die between 2016 and 2025 from opioid overdose. 5 These increases have led to a rarely observed multiple year decline in life expectancy, and overdose is the leading cause of death in people less than 55 years old. 6 Pharmacists most commonly address the crisis through naloxone dispensing and/or using the prescription drug monitoring program (PDMP).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…4 Projections revealed if current prevention and intervention strategies do not change by 2025, the rate of misuse and overdose death will rise by 61%. 5 In response to the epidemic, multiple federal, state, and local agencies have implemented various strategies to address the opioid crisis. Current interventions such as increasing availability of naloxone are projected to result in approximately a 4% reduction in opioid-related deaths.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…6 Overall, these strategies are found to have minimal impact preventing only 3.0-5.3% of overdose deaths. 5 Studies by Chen and colleagues 5 and Pitt and colleagues 6 have further revealed that current universal interventions are not enough to address the multidimensional and dynamic aspects of the opioid epidemic. Improving universal opioid prevention strategies to more tailored approaches has been suggested.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%