Prevention and Control of Zika as a Mosquito-Borne and Sexually Transmitted Disease: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis

Gao, Daozhou; Lou, Yijun; He, Daihai; Porco, Travis C.; Kuang, Yang; Chowell, Gerardo; Ruan, Shigui

doi:10.1038/srep28070

Cited by 286 publications

(285 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…It generally results in a mild disease characterized by low-grade fever, rash, and/or conjunctivitis, although only ∼20% of those infected are symptomatic (4). Although there have been instances of sexual and perinatal/vertical transmission (5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12) and the potential for transmission by transfusion is present (13), ZIKV spreads primarily through infected Aedes mosquitoes (14,15).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Spread of Zika virus in the Americas

Zhang

Sun

Chinazzi

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

292

321

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We use a data-driven global stochastic epidemic model to analyze the spread of the Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas. The model has high spatial and temporal resolution and integrates real-world demographic, human mobility, socioeconomic, temperature, and vector density data. We estimate that the first introduction of ZIKV to Brazil likely occurred between August 2013 and April 2014 (90% credible interval). We provide simulated epidemic profiles of incident ZIKV infections for several countries in the Americas through February 2017. The ZIKV epidemic is characterized by slow growth and high spatial and seasonal heterogeneity, attributable to the dynamics of the mosquito vector and to the characteristics and mobility of the human populations. We project the expected timing and number of pregnancies infected with ZIKV during the first trimester and provide estimates of microcephaly cases assuming different levels of risk as reported in empirical retrospective studies. Our approach represents a modeling effort aimed at understanding the potential magnitude and timing of the ZIKV epidemic and it can be potentially used as a template for the analysis of future mosquito-borne epidemics. Using a data-driven stochastic and spatial epidemic model, we present numerical results providing insight into the first introduction in the region and the epidemic dynamics across the Americas. We use the model to analyze the spatiotemporal spread and magnitude of the epidemic in the Americas through to February 2017, accounting for seasonal environmental factors and detailed population data. We also provide projections of the number of pregnancies infected with ZIKV during the first trimester, along with estimates for the number of microcephaly cases per country using three different levels of risk based on empirical retrospective studies (36, 37). ResultsIntroduction of ZIKV to the Americas. We identify 12 major transportation hubs in areas related to major events held in Brazil,

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Spread of Zika virus in the Americas

Zhang

Sun

Chinazzi

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

292

321

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“…Padmanabhan et al (2017), consider two classes of human infectious, asymptomatic and symptomatic, which are assumed to be equally infectious and of similar du-ration (period of infectiousness) [24]. Onuorah et al (2016) suggest a deterministic mathematical model of ZIKV where obtained the R 0 using the next generation method [25], indicating to be most sensitive to the biting and mortality rate of mosquitoes while sexual transmission increases the risk of infection and epidemic size and prolongs the outbreak [26].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation Model to the Zika Virus Considering Asymptomatic Population

Jamboos¹,

Muñoz²,

Muñoz³

et al. 2018

OJMSi

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A simulation model based on nonlinear ordinary differential equations to interpret the transmission dynamics of Zika Virus (ZIKV), is formulated and analyzed, integrating the asymptomatic human population and coupled to the Aedes aegypti dynamics, the epidemic threshold Basic Reproduction Number R 0 is determined, as the spectral radius of Next-Generation Matrix and the system is simulated with MAPLE computing program taking the parameter values from literature.

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“…Ebenezer et al [21] suggested that to control disease the best strategy is to combine all preventive, treatment and Insecticides controls simultaneously. Daozhou et al [22] noted that to control spread of ZIKV preventive steps are necessary during sexual activities in ZIKV outbreak area.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Preventions and Controls on Congenital Transmissions of Zika: Mathematical Analysis

Shah¹,

Patel²,

Yeolekar³

2017

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Vector-borne diseases threat lives of millions of people in many countries of the world. Zika is one of the vector-borne diseases which initially spread by the bite of an infected Aedes species mosquito (Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus) and then it transmits vertically from a pregnant woman to her fetus or from an infected human to their sexual partners. The congenital transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV) results in new born with microcephaly and other neurological abnormalities. The control of infected mosquitos is the best efficient way to control spread of ZIKV. Spraying insecticide is the safest and easiest way to control mosquitos, but sometimes it is cost worthy for long period of spraying. Controlled prevention from the vector bites can also help to control disease spread. To control congenital transmission and sexual transmission of ZIKV, preventions should be taken to reduce/stop pregnancy rate and safe heterosexual transmission among adults. Also, there is no specific treatment available for Zika disease. Treatment is aimed at relieving symptoms with rest, fluids and medications. Controlled combinations of rest, fluids and medications will help to recover early. As costs are incorporated with spraying, preventions and treatment, our aim is to minimise the total cost associated by controlling spraying, preventions and treatment. To fulfil this purpose a mathematical model is developed with disease dynamics in nine compartments namely Susceptible human child, Susceptible human male, Susceptible human female, Infected human child, Infected human male, Infected human female, Recovered human, Susceptible vector and Infected vector including vertical transmission of Zika disease. Numerical simulations have been carried out to optimise controls, and basic reproduction number and stability are calculated.

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Prevention and Control of Zika as a Mosquito-Borne and Sexually Transmitted Disease: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis

Cited by 286 publications

References 37 publications

Spread of Zika virus in the Americas

Spread of Zika virus in the Americas

Simulation Model to the Zika Virus Considering Asymptomatic Population

Preventions and Controls on Congenital Transmissions of Zika: Mathematical Analysis

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