Present and future offshore wind power potential in northern Europe based on downscaled global climate runs with adjusted SST and sea ice cover

Barstad, Idar; Sorteberg, Asgeir; Mesquita, Michel D. S.

doi:10.1016/j.renene.2012.02.008

Cited by 57 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…The 33 studies available for this subregion (Table 6, [2,5,9,13,17,19,[26][27][28]30,37,45,[48][49][50][51][54][55][56][57][58][60][61][62]67,70,[74][75][76][78][79][80][81]) allowed for the evaluation of all categories of aspects of projected future storminess. The majority of the evaluated studies projected an increase in frequency, intensity, and activity of storms and cyclones, as well as an increase in frequency and intensity of high-impact wind speed.…”

Section: Western Europementioning

confidence: 99%

Review on the Projections of Future Storminess over the North Atlantic European Region

et al. 2016

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This is an overview of the results from previously published climate modeling studies reporting on projected aspects of future storminess over the North Atlantic European region (NAER) in the period 2020-2190. Changes in storminess are summarized for seven subregions in the study area and rated by a categorical evaluation scheme that takes into account emission scenarios and modeling complexity in the reviewed studies. Although many of the reviewed studies reported an increase in the intensity of high-impact wind speed and extreme cyclone frequency in the second half of the 21st century, the projections of aspects of future storminess over the NAER differed regionally. There is broad consensus that the frequency and intensity of storms, cyclones, and high-impact wind speed will increase over Central and Western Europe, and these changes will probably have the potential to produce more damage. In contrast, future extratropical storminess over Southern Europe is very likely to decrease. For Northern and Eastern Europe the results of the evaluation are inconclusive, because there is an indication of increasing as well as decreasing development of the evaluated aspects of future storminess. Concerning the storm track, we found indications of a likely north-and eastward shift in most assessed studies. Results from three studies suggest a northeastward shift of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

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Section: Western Europementioning

confidence: 99%

Review on the Projections of Future Storminess over the North Atlantic European Region

et al. 2016

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“…However, results for mean wind speed only provide an insight to the sign of the climate trend for wind energy potential but do not allow quantifying the magnitude of the change. Studies that investigate wind energy potential are currently only available for parts of Europe, focusing on the British Isles, North Sea, and Scandinavia and/or the Baltic Sea, and consider both dynamical and empirical downscaling approaches (e.g., Barstad et al 2012;Pryor et al 2005Pryor et al , 2012aPryor and Schoof 2010). Most of these analyses agree on an increase in WED in northern Europe and/or the Baltic region, especially in wintertime.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Changes in Wind Energy Potential over Europe Using Regional Climate Model Ensemble Projections

Hueging¹,

Haas²,

Born³

et al. 2013

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

121

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The impact of climate change on wind power generation potentials over Europe is investigated by considering ensemble projections from two regional climate models (RCMs) driven by a global climate model (GCM). Wind energy density and its interannual variability are estimated based on hourly near-surface wind speeds. Additionally, the possible impact of climatic changes on the energy output of a sample 2.5-MW turbine is discussed. GCM-driven RCM simulations capture the behavior and variability of current wind energy indices, even though some differences exist when compared with reanalysis-driven RCM simulations. Toward the end of the twenty-first century, projections show significant changes of energy density on annual average across Europe that are substantially stronger in seasonal terms. The emergence time of these changes varies from region to region and season to season, but some long-term trends are already statistically significant in the middle of the twenty-first century. Over northern and central Europe, the wind energy potential is projected to increase, particularly in winter and autumn. In contrast, energy potential over southern Europe may experience a decrease in all seasons except for the Aegean Sea. Changes for wind energy output follow the same patterns but are of smaller magnitude. The GCM/RCM model chains project a significant intensification of both interannual and intra-annual variability of energy density over parts of western and central Europe, thus imposing new challenges to a reliable pan-European energy supply in future decades.

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“…This is consistent with the tendencies found in Europe, Australia, and USA. The studies that have analysed the wind speed data from terrestrial anemometers have generally found declines over the last 30-50 years [18][19][20], the cause of which is currently uncertain. The long-term changes of wind speed and direction in the territory of Latvia should be evaluated in the future taking into account the possible inhomogeneities.…”

Section: Long-term Changes Of Windmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of the Present and Future Offshore Wind Power Potential: A Case Study in a Target Territory of the Baltic Sea Near the Latvian Coast

Lizuma¹,

Avotniece²,

Rupainis³

et al. 2015

Wind Resources and Future Energy Security

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Offshore wind energy development promises to be a significant domestic renewable energy source in Latvia. The reliable prediction of present and future wind resources at offshore sites is crucial for planning and selecting the location for wind farms. The overall goal of this paper is the assessment of offshore wind power potential in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast as well as the identification of a trend in the future wind energy potential for the study territory. The regional climate model CLM and High Resolution Limited Area Model (Hirlam) simulations were used to obtain the wind climatology data for the study area. The results indicated that offshore wind energy is promising for expanding the national electricity generation and will continue to be a stable resource for electricity generation in the region over the 21st century.

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Present and future offshore wind power potential in northern Europe based on downscaled global climate runs with adjusted SST and sea ice cover

Cited by 57 publications

References 12 publications

Review on the Projections of Future Storminess over the North Atlantic European Region

Review on the Projections of Future Storminess over the North Atlantic European Region

Regional Changes in Wind Energy Potential over Europe Using Regional Climate Model Ensemble Projections

Assessment of the Present and Future Offshore Wind Power Potential: A Case Study in a Target Territory of the Baltic Sea Near the Latvian Coast

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