Review on the Projections of Future Storminess over the North Atlantic European Region

Abstract

This is an overview of the results from previously published climate modeling studies reporting on projected aspects of future storminess over the North Atlantic European region (NAER) in the period 2020-2190. Changes in storminess are summarized for seven subregions in the study area and rated by a categorical evaluation scheme that takes into account emission scenarios and modeling complexity in the reviewed studies. Although many of the reviewed studies reported an increase in the intensity of high-impact wind speed and extreme cyclone frequency in the second half of the 21st century, the projections of aspects of future storminess over the NAER differed regionally. There is broad consensus that the frequency and intensity of storms, cyclones, and high-impact wind speed will increase over Central and Western Europe, and these changes will probably have the potential to produce more damage. In contrast, future extratropical storminess over Southern Europe is very likely to decrease. For Northern and Eastern Europe the results of the evaluation are inconclusive, because there is an indication of increasing as well as decreasing development of the evaluated aspects of future storminess. Concerning the storm track, we found indications of a likely north-and eastward shift in most assessed studies. Results from three studies suggest a northeastward shift of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Making Administrative Systems Adaptive to Emerging Climate Change-Related Health Effects: Case of Estonia

“…Climate change could affect the spread of leishmaniosis, hantavirus, tick-borne encephalitis, dengue fever, and tularaemia in the region [48]. Among other European areas, the northern European region is projected to experience significant increases in future strong storms (intensity of high-impact wind speed and extreme cyclone frequency) [49]. An increase in the frequency of extreme weather, storms, and torrential rain may bring increased risks of physical danger.…”

Clast abrasion of a rock shore platform on the Atlantic coast of Ireland

“…Given the modelled increase in the frequency of more extreme storms (Mölter et al, 2016), then it follows that that abrasion by clast transport may become an increasingly important geomorphic process on shore platforms as higher intensity storms will likely result in an increase in the number of clasts produced via quarrying. This is not a process that is exclusive to cliff-sourced sediment as clasts quarried from the platform (while restricted to higher magnitude events) also form CATs.…”

“…This is not a process that is exclusive to cliff-sourced sediment as clasts quarried from the platform (while restricted to higher magnitude events) also form CATs. Given the modelled increase in the frequency of more extreme storms (Mölter et al, 2016), then it follows that that abrasion by clast transport may become an increasingly important geomorphic process on shore platforms as higher intensity storms will likely result in an increase in the number of clasts produced via quarrying. In addition, given that climate change will increase not only potential wave energy on the platform but also weathering rates of cliffs from increased rainfall receiptsmore frequent rockfalls will provide additional clasts for abrasion of the platform.…”

Coupled effects of wind‐storms and drought on tree mortality across 115 forest stands from the Western Alps and the Jura mountains

“…The increase in the number of forest die-off events has potentially strong impact for forest communities, ecosystem functioning, and ecosystem services (e.g., Anderegg, Kane, & Anderegg, 2013;Blennow, Persson, Wallin, Vareman, & Persson, 2014). Extreme weather and climate events are likely to increase in frequency and intensity, with high temperature and summer drought throughout Europe (IPCC, 2013), and with stronger winds in Central and Western Europe (Fink, Br€ ucher, Ermert, Kr€ uger, & Pinto, 2009;M€ olter, Schindler, Albrecht, & Kohnle, 2016). Extreme weather and climate events are likely to increase in frequency and intensity, with high temperature and summer drought throughout Europe (IPCC, 2013), and with stronger winds in Central and Western Europe (Fink, Br€ ucher, Ermert, Kr€ uger, & Pinto, 2009;M€ olter, Schindler, Albrecht, & Kohnle, 2016).…”

“…Future climate change in Europe is expected to further intensify forest disturbances due to both climatic and biotic hazards like droughts, fire, wind-throw, and pathogens. Extreme weather and climate events are likely to increase in frequency and intensity, with high temperature and summer drought throughout Europe (IPCC, 2013), and with stronger winds in Central and Western Europe (Fink, Br€ ucher, Ermert, Kr€ uger, & Pinto, 2009;M€ olter, Schindler, Albrecht, & Kohnle, 2016). Therefore, there is an urgent need to better understand the response of forests to these climate extremes in order to be able to make reliable predictions and to develop adaptive forest management strategies (e.g., Lindner et al, 2010;Wang, Peng, Kneeshaw, Larocque, & Luo, 2012).…”