2020
DOI: 10.1111/jebm.12376
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Preliminary prediction of the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus 2019‐nCoV

Abstract: Objectives:To estimate the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Methods:Based on the susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) compartment model and the assumption that the infectious cases with symptoms occurred before 26 January, 2020 are resulted from free propagation without intervention, we estimate the basic reproduction number of 2019-nCoV according to the reported confirmed cases and suspected cases, as well as the theoretical estimated number of infected cases by oth… Show more

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Cited by 417 publications
(393 citation statements)
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“…Our estimated 0 range of 1.6-4.2 for COVID-19 is consistent with other preliminary estimates posted on public domains [25][26][27][28], and is comparable to the 0 of SARS, which was in the range of 2-5 during the 2003 outbreak in Singapore [15]. Between our two estimates, the latter scenario yielded a greater value than the former, and there was an increasingly improved ascertainment in early January 2020.…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 89%
“…Our estimated 0 range of 1.6-4.2 for COVID-19 is consistent with other preliminary estimates posted on public domains [25][26][27][28], and is comparable to the 0 of SARS, which was in the range of 2-5 during the 2003 outbreak in Singapore [15]. Between our two estimates, the latter scenario yielded a greater value than the former, and there was an increasingly improved ascertainment in early January 2020.…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 89%
“…Based on observations of data from the early outbreak in mainland China from 10-24 January 2020, the trend of an increasing incidence largely follows exponential growth, and the mean basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) was estimated to range from 2.24 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.96-2.55] to 3.58 (95% CI 2.89-4.39), associated with two-to eight-fold increases in the reporting rate [11] . Another estimation based on data from 31 December 2019 to 28 January 2020 suggested similar findings, with the R 0 for COVID-19 being 2.68 [95% credible interval (CrI) 2.47-2.86] and the epidemic doubling time being 6.4 days (95% CrI 5.8-7.1 days) [29] .…”
Section: Epidemiologymentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Moreover, according to one study, presumed hospital-related transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was suspected in 41% of patients [8] . Based on the evidence of a rapidly increasing incidence of infections [11] and the possibility of transmission by asymptomatic carriers [12] , SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted effectively among humans and exhibits high potential February 20, 2020;7:4 ] for a pandemic [5 , 10 , 13] . In addition to the high transmission efficiency of SARS-CoV-2, the advancement and convenience of global travel could further enhance its worldwide spread [12] .…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…2,5 Mechanisms of transmission are believed to include contact, droplet, and possibly airborne under certain circumstances based on historical experiences related to SARS-CoV outbreaks. [6][7][8][9][10] The basic reproduction number (R 0 ) for this infection, given variable host and environmental factors, is estimated in the initial outbreak to be between 2.2 and 3.6 (number of cases generated after exposure to one patient), 11 which is similar to SARS-CoV but higher than MERS-CoV. The case fatality rate is estimated to be approximately 2% based on latest reported data, 12 less than SARS-CoV (approximately 10%) 13 and MERS-CoV (approximately 40%) 14 but significantly higher than the 2009 pH1N1 (0.026%).…”
Section: Keyword Covid-19mentioning
confidence: 99%