Objectives:To estimate the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).
Methods:Based on the susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) compartment model and the assumption that the infectious cases with symptoms occurred before 26 January, 2020 are resulted from free propagation without intervention, we estimate the basic reproduction number of 2019-nCoV according to the reported confirmed cases and suspected cases, as well as the theoretical estimated number of infected cases by other research teams, together with some epidemiological determinants learned from the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).
Results:The basic reproduction number fall between 2.8 and 3.3 by using the real-time reports on the number of 2019-nCoV-infected cases from People's Daily in China and fall between 3.2 and 3.9 on the basis of the predicted number of infected cases from international colleagues.
Conclusions:The early transmission ability of 2019-nCoV is close to or slightly higher than SARS.It is a controllable disease with moderate to high transmissibility. Timely and effective control measures are needed to prevent the further transmissions.
K E Y W O R D S2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), basic reproduction number, epidemiology
A focused PROTAC library hijacking cancer therapeutic target CDK6 was developed. A design principle as "match/mismatch" was proposed for understanding the degradation profile differences in these PROTACs. Notably, potent PROTACs with specific and remarkable CDK6 degradation potential were generated by linking CDK6 inhibitor palbociclib and E3 ligase CRBN recruiter pomalidomide. The PROTAC strongly inhibited proliferation of hematopoietic cancer cells including multiple myeloma and robustly degraded copy-amplified/mutated forms of CDK6, indicating future potential clinical applications.
Facing the threats of infectious diseases, we take various actions to protect ourselves, but few studies considered an evolving system with competing strategies. In view of that, we propose an evolutionary epidemic model coupled with human behaviors, where individuals have three strategies: vaccination, self-protection and laissez faire, and could adjust their strategies according to their neighbors' strategies and payoffs at the beginning of each new season of epidemic spreading. We found a counter-intuitive phenomenon analogous to the well-known Braess's Paradox, namely a better condition may lead to worse performance. Specifically speaking, increasing the successful rate of self-protection does not necessarily reduce the epidemic size or improve the system payoff. The range and degree of the Braess's Paradox are sensitive to both the parameters characterizing the epidemic spreading and the strategy payoff, while the existence of the Braess's Paradox is insensitive to the network topologies. This phenomenon can be well explained by a mean-field approximation. Our study demonstrates an important fact that a better condition for individuals may yield a worse outcome for the society.
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