Preliminaries to a psychology of inference

Brehmer, Berndt

doi:10.1111/j.1467-9450.1979.tb00701.x

Cited by 48 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…They have expressed a commitment to the method of representative design, which, they argue, differentiates them from other researchers in cognitive psychology in general and judgment and decision making in particular (e.g., see B. Brehmer, 1979;Cooksey, 1996;Hammond et al, 1975;Hammond & Wascoe, 1980;Hastie & Hammond, 1991). For instance, Hastie and Hammond (1991) claimed that "the Lens model researchers' commitment to 'representative design' is explicit (and enthusiastic)" (p. 498).…”

Section: Social Judgment Theory Policy Capturing and The Importancementioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Representative Design in an Ecological Approach to Cognition.

Dhami¹,

Hertwig²,

Hoffrage³

2004

Psychological Bulletin

373

285

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Egon Brunswik argued that psychological processes are adapted to environmental properties. He proposed the method of representative design to capture these processes and advocated that psychology be a science of organism-environment relations. Representative design involves randomly sampling stimuli from the environment or creating stimuli in which environmental properties are preserved. This departs from systematic design. The authors review the development of representative design, examine its use in judgment and decision-making research, and demonstrate the effect of design on research findings. They suggest that some of the practical difficulties associated with representative design may be overcome with modern technologies. The importance of representative design in psychology and the implications of this method for ecological approaches to cognition are discussed.

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Section: Social Judgment Theory Policy Capturing and The Importancementioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Representative Design in an Ecological Approach to Cognition.

Dhami¹,

Hertwig²,

Hoffrage³

2004

Psychological Bulletin

373

285

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“…387 expressed a commitment to the method of representative design, which, they argue, differentiates them from other researchers in cognitive psychology, in general, and judgment and decision making, in particular (e.g., see Brehmer, 1979;Cooksey, 1996;Hastie & Harnmond, 1991, p. 498). In light of their explicit commitment to the method of representative design, we were surprised to find that a !arge proportion of studies (those thatrelied on formal situational sampling; see Harnmond, 1966) often failed to represent the ecological properties toward which generalizations were intended.…”

Section: W/zieh World Should Be Represented In Representative Design?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Which World Should Be Represented in Representative Design?

Hoffrage

Hertwig²

2005

Information Sampling and Adaptive Cognition

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“…This paradigm, also known as probabilistic category learning, has been applied in numerous areas of psychology, including human judgment (Brehmer, 1979; …”

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confidence: 99%

“…This paradigm, also known as probabilistic category learning, has been applied in numerous areas of psychology, including human judgment (Brehmer, 1979;Doherty & Kurz, 1996;Klayman, 1988; for a review see Goldstein, 2004), learning and memory (Gluck & Bower, 1988;Knowlton, Squire, & Gluck, 1994;Shanks, 1990), neuroscience (Ashby & Ell, 2001;Poldrack et al, 2001), and social cognition (Gavanski & Hoffman, 1987;Rappoport & Summers, 1973).…”

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confidence: 99%

Insight and strategy in multiple-cue learning.

Lagnado

Newell

Kahan

et al. 2006

Journal of Experimental Psychology: General

113

167

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In multiple-cue learning (also known as probabilistic category learning) people acquire information about cue-outcome relations and combine these into predictions or judgments. Previous researchers claimed that people can achieve high levels of performance without explicit knowledge of the task structure or insight into their own judgment policies. It has also been argued that people use a variety of suboptimal strategies to solve such tasks. In three experiments the authors reexamined these conclusions by introducing novel measures of task knowledge and self-insight and using "rolling regression" methods to analyze individual learning. Participants successfully learned a four-cue probabilistic environment and showed accurate knowledge of both the task structure and their own judgment processes. Learning analyses suggested that the apparent use of suboptimal strategies emerges from the incremental tracking of statistical contingencies in the environment.Keywords: multiple-cue learning, self-insight, strategy, rolling regression, implicit versus explicit learning A fundamental goal of cognition is to predict the future on the basis of past experience. In an uncertain world this involves learning about the probabilistic relations that hold between the available information and an outcome of interest and integrating this information into a singular judgment. Thus, a stockbroker draws on various market indicators to predict the future price of a share, and a race-course pundit uses factors such as form and track condition to pick the likely winner of a race.The underlying structure of this kind of prediction is captured in the multiple-cue learning framework (Brunswik, 1943;Hammond, 1955), which focuses on how people learn from repeated exposure to probabilistic information. This paradigm, also known as probabilistic category learning, has been applied in numerous areas of psychology, including human judgment (Brehmer, 1979;

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Preliminaries to a psychology of inference

Cited by 48 publications

References 70 publications

The Role of Representative Design in an Ecological Approach to Cognition.

The Role of Representative Design in an Ecological Approach to Cognition.

Which World Should Be Represented in Representative Design?

Insight and strategy in multiple-cue learning.

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