Predictive theory of CD4+ cells in HIV+ patients in antiretroviral therapy

Abstract

Background: Flow cytometry evaluates the number CD4-Positive T-Lymphocytes in patients infected with HIV/AIDS in anti-retroviral management, which orientates therapies towards different targets. Previously, a methodology was designed based on probability and set theories from leukocyte and lymphocyte counts of complete blood count, although predictions in time were not developed, which is why is wanted to establish a methodology of clinical applicability to temporarily forecast the values of CD4+ greater than 500, between 200 and 500 and lesser than 200 from the values of CD4+ and leukocytes of each patient. Methods: From sequential counts of CD4+ and leukocytes of 200 cases, the registries of 10 prototypical patients were observed to establish predictive patterns, and then these patterns were are applied to the remaining patients in a blind study, finding the probability of success of the methodology as well as sensitivity and specificity values. Results: 5 patterns were found with percentages greater than 99% of predictive accuracy for the distinct conditions of the methodology, with values of sensitivity and specificity of 99%. Conclusions: through a mathematical theoretical simplification, a temporal self-organization in the sequence of measurements of leukocytes and CD4+ lymphocytes were established, highlighting the loading of probability in the dynamic of CD4+ counts, useful to conduct more appropriate following ups of patients in anti-retroviral management.