Predictive Properties of the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA) in a Northern Canadian Prairie Sample

Abstract

This study examined the predictive properties of the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA) in a large Canadian, predominantly Indigenous, sample from a geographic region with the highest rates of intimate partner violence (IPV) in the country. A random stratified sample of 300 men (92.7% Indigenous) court adjudicated for an IPV offense was drawn from six Northern Saskatchewan Royal Canadian Mounted Police detachment regions. The ODARA was rated from police records and recidivism data were obtained via official criminal records over a mean 4.7-year follow-up. ODARA scores had small to moderate predictive accuracy (AUC/C = .58–.67) for IPV and other recidivism outcomes in the aggregate sample and Indigenous subsample. E/O index analyses demonstrated that the ODARA Ontario norms overpredicted IPV recidivism at high scores but underpredicted it at lower mid-range scores. Implications for use of the ODARA to assist frontline police personnel in IPV risk assessment and management are discussed.

Predicting Recidivism in a High-Risk Sample of Intimate Partner Violent Men Referred for Police Threat Assessment

“…Only a handful of IPV risk assessment tools have shown at least medium effect sizes in predicting IPV reoffending, such as the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA; Hilton et al, 2004) and Spousal Assault Risk Assessment version 2 (SARA-V2; Kropp et al, 1995; for reviews, see Graham et al, 2021; Svalin & Levander, 2019; van der Put et al, 2019). These tools have also been used to identify the risk of other offenses, such as any violent recidivism or general offending following an IPV incident (e.g., Hegel et al, 2022; Jung & Buro, 2017; Radatz & Hilton, 2022), which is beneficial given that intimate partners can be targeted through other offending behaviors (e.g., violence against the partner’s family, break and enter; Hilton & Eke, 2016).…”

“…The ODARA predicts IPV recidivism with receiver-operating characteristic areas under the curve (AUC) ranging from .65 to .74 (Hilton & Harris, 2009;Hilton et al, 2008) and an average AUC of .67 to .69 (Messing & Thaller, 2013;van der Put et al, 2019). Recent studies validated the ODARA in racially diverse samples (Hegel et al, 2022;Radatz & Hilton, 2022). The ODARA is intended to be scored from police and criminal justice records and can be scored reliably from archival data in Canada (e.g., Jung & Buro, 2017).…”

Too risky to use, or too risky not to? Lessons learned from over 30 years of research on forensic risk assessment with Indigenous persons.

“…ODARA scores demonstrated moderate predictive accuracy (AUC = .64) for Indigenous men and a large predictive effect (AUC = .77) for non-Indigenous men with respect to this outcome. Hegel et al (2021) subsequently scored the ODARA from police files for 300 men convicted for IPV randomly selected from six Royal Canadian Mounted Police detachment regions in Northern Saskatchewan, which has the highest rates of IPV in the country. Most of the sample ( n = 278, 92.7%) identified as Indigenous ancestry.…”

The Effects of Race and Gender When Predicting Intimate Partner Violence Recidivism in Police Reports Using the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment

“…Further, ethical questions have been raised about using risk assessment tools to assess individuals from minority racial groups before those tools have been specifically tested for their communities, such as individuals identifying as Indigenous or Black (e.g., Perley-Robertson et al, 2019; Vincent & Viljoen, 2020). There is evidence of racial and cultural differences among those who engage in IPV (e.g., Cho, 2012; Gonzalez et al 2020); despite this, few researchers have examined IPV risk assessment tools among racialized populations (e.g., Hegel et al, 2021; Stansfield & Williams, 2014). Black feminist criminology scholars, such as Potter (2006), have argued that studies of assaulted White women may be inadequate to understand Black women’s experience and use of IPV; in the same vein, risk assessment developed for White men who use IPV may not adequately portray Black men’s (or women’s) risk of IPV recidivism.…”