Predictive Models of Alopecia Areata Prevelence Forming Based on the Content of Metals In The Environment Objects

Abstract

The article presents data showing the effect of environmental factors on the prevelence of autoimmune disorders, the example of alopecia areata. The results of mathematical modeling of the formation of this dermatosis prevalence depending on the content of zinc, copper, nickel, chromium and lead in the environment were described. It was found that an increase in the content of these metals in the soil increases the likelihood of the formation of high levels of incidence of alopecia areata. However, the content of the same metals in the air has no effect on the formation of prevelence of this autoimmune skin disease. Using data on the content of zinc, copper, nickel, chromium and lead in the soil developed logit-model allows us to predict the prevalence rates of alopecia areata and make appropriate management decisions.