Predictive Modeling of Transport Infrastructure Space for Urban Growth Phenomena in Developing Countries’ Cities: A Case Study of Kano — Nigeria

Abstract

Global urbanization has the most tremendous negative effects on the changing landscapes in many developing countries’ cities. It is necessary to develop appropriate monitoring techniques for tracking transport space evolution. The work explores the impacts of urban growth dynamics of transport space over the past decades as a basis for predicting future space demands in Kano, Nigeria. Three epochs of Landsat images from 1984, 2013 and 2019 were processed, classified and analyzed. Spatial classifications of land-use/land-cover (LULC) types in Kano include transport space, built-up areas, vegetation, farmland, bare land and water. The data analysis involves model calibration, validation and prediction using areas using the hybrid modeling techniques—cellular automata-Markov (CA-Markov) in IDIRISI SELVA 17.0 and remote-sensing ARC-GIS 10.7 softwares. The result finds significant expansion of transport and built-up areas while other LULC receded throughout the entire study period. Predictive modeling of transport infrastructure shows spatial expansion by 345 km2 (3.9%) and 410 km2 (11.7%) in 2030 and 2050 respectively. Kappa reliability indices of agreement (KIA) classified images and ground maps were 85%, 86% and 88%, respectively, for 1984, 2013 and 2019 time series. The calibration quality met the 80% minimum suggested in literature for the spatial-temporal track and prediction of urban growth phenomena.

Spatial Assessment and Prediction of Urbanization in Maseru Using Earth Observation Data

“…Many researchers have found a similar link between high urbanization and economic growth for the provision of housing and basic infrastructure development, especially in Sub-Saharan countries [14,15,55,56]. This inequitable growth has resulted in various problems, which include traffic congestion, road accidents, and air, land and water pollution [20].…”

Peri-urbanization, dynamics, and challenges in developing countries towards sustainable urban growth - Special Section Editorial

“…The most important are population growth (Espindola et al, 2017), economic growth and globalization (Aguilár et al, 2003;Shi et al, 2016), and lack of efficient urban planning processes combined with other city policies (Córdova-Aguilar, 2019). All of these causes include common principles such as land prices (Habibi & Asadi, 2011); extension of public services and development and improvement of infrastructure, especially transport, due to accessibility (Otuoze et al, 2021); low tax rates in new locations; increased living standards due to consumer preferences related to the search of low population density areas located in more convenient natural environments (Robert et al, 2019).…”

Effect of Transportation Infrastructure on Built-up Area Using Prediction of Land Use/Cover Change: Case Study of Yogyakarta International Airport, Indonesia

“…The development of the built-up land puts pressure on agricultural land, as happened in Suzhou, China, the rapid development of built-up area was followed by a gradual decline in agricultural land (Liang et al, 2020). Similarly, in Kano, Nigeria, a significant increase in transportation and built-up areas has caused agricultural land to shrink (Otuoze et al, 2020). Development and urbanization inevitably contribute to the loss of agricultural land and forests converted to other uses (Kurowska et al, 2020).…”

“…This phenomenon can be measured and represented due to the location of occurrence and space occupancy (Bello & Rilwani, 2016). Many factors influence LUCC including nature (Adebayo et al, 2019), socioeconomic conditions of the population, industry, trade, technology use, development policies (Harini et al, 2018), population growth, accessibility, facilities and infrastructure (Williyantoro, 2016), urbanization (Dangulla et al, 2020), and transportation infrastructure (Otuoze et al, 2020).…”