Predictive modeling of hourly probabilities for weather-related road accidents

Abstract

Abstract. An impact of weather on road accidents has been identified in several studies with a focus mainly on monthly or daily accident counts. We study hourly probabilities of road accidents caused by adverse weather conditions in Germany on the spatial scale of administrative districts. Meteorological predictor variables from radar-based precipitation estimates, high-resolution reanalysis and weather forecasts are used in logistic regression models. Models taking into account temperature and hourly precipitation sums reach the best predictive skill according to different metrics. By introducing meteorological variables, the models hit rate is increased from 0.3 to 0.7, while keeping the false alarm rate constant at 0.2. Accident probability has a non-linear relationship with precipitation. Given an hourly precipitation sum of 1 mm, accident probabilities are about 5 times larger at negative temperatures compared to positive temperatures. Based on ensemble weather forecasts skilful predictions of accident probabilities of up to 21 hours are possible; the loss of skill compared to a model using radar and reanalysis data is negligible. The findings are relevant in the context of impact based warnings for both road users, road maintenance and traffic management authorities, as well as rescue forces.

Earthquake early warning in countries where damaging earthquakes only occur every 50 to 150 years – The societal perspective

“…In Taiwan, in comparison, they set the threshold slightly higher to a magnitude of 4.5 [27], corresponding to near-source intensities of about V-VI. In New Zealand, people hypothetically wished to receive earthquake warnings beginning from MMI V-VI [36]. Summing up, the alert thresholds vary regionally and, consequently, have to be defined for each country separately.…”

“…Further, credibility is enhanced if a trustful source is indicated in the alert [44]. Moreover, a prominent warning text such as "strong shaking expected" should be highlighted and supplemented with additional information about the earthquake and secondary hazards such as tsunamis [36]. Also for the behavioral recommendations short and clear textual indications are wished [42].…”

“…In New Zealand, people said that 5-10 s would be enough for them to easily take protective actions (e.g., stop the car, go under a table, mentally prepare). Longer times would even allow them to move to a safe area (e.g., garden), help others, or look for more information [36]. However, one must ensure that people know that the warning time is highly variable and not fixed or constant to avoid any misconceptions [54].…”

Earthquake Early Warning in Countries Where Damaging Earthquakes Only Occur Every 50 to 150 Years – the Societal Perspective

“…Second, in order to reduce public's mistrust in the system and improve their understanding of the capabilities and limitations of EEW systems [19], the technical limitations should be transparently communicated [35,61]. Third, Becker et al [36] emphasizes that countries with already mature systems must be prepared to address normalization biases. Fourth, drills allow people and organisations to practice protective actions, whereby not the quantity but the quality matters (e.g., identifying specific training deficits) [54].…”

Identification of Climate Change Impacts and Tradeoffs Established Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways of IPCC AR6 using A Moderate Resolution GCM viz. MRI-ESM2-0 of CMIP6 over Pakistan

“…Road traffic incident is a major concern since cost of that is about 2% of the gross domestic product in Pakistan (Hammad et al, 2019). According to the United States Department of Transport (USDOT), nearly 23% of road accidents are attributed to extreme weather situations as a result of unpleasant weather conditions, such as fog, snow, and rain (Thordarson & Olafsson, 2008;Becker et al, 2020). Increased temperatures are causing numerous issues, such as tyre burst, overheating of motor cars engine, thermal contraction, and expansions of flyovers (Ali et al, 2020).…”