Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK: short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies

Abstract

Background:Efforts to suppress transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK have seen non-pharmaceutical interventions being invoked. The most severe measures to date include all restaurants, pubs and cafes being ordered to close on 20th March, followed by a "stay at home" order on the 23rd March and the closure of all non-essential retail outlets for an indefinite period. Government agencies are presently analysing how best to develop an exit strategy from these measures and to determine how the epidemic may progress once measures are lifted. Mathematical models are currently providing short and long term forecasts regarding the future course of the COVID-19 outbreak in the UK to support evidence-based policymaking. : medRxiv preprint second half of 2021, but ensures that the health service is protected by reintroducing social distancing measures for all individuals in a region when required. Discussion:Our work supports the decision to apply stringent non-pharmaceutical measures in March 2020 to suppress the epidemic. We provide strong evidence to support the need for a cautious, measured approach to relaxation of lockdown measures, to protect the most vulnerable members of society and support the health service through subduing demand on hospital beds, in particular bed occupancy in intensive care units. 2 to a cluster of pneumonia cases [1]. The virus was identified as a novel strain of coronavirus on 7th 3 January 2020 [2] and the first known death as a result of the disease occurred two days later [1]. Over 4 the next few days, cases were reported in several other cities in China and in other countries around 5 the world including South Korea, Japan and the United States of America. On 23rd January, the 6Chinese government issued an order for Wuhan city to enter "lockdown", whereby all public transport 7 was suspended and residents were not allowed to leave the city. Over the next 24 hours, these measures 8 were extended to all the major cities in Hubei province in an attempt to prevent further spread of 9 disease.

Determining the level of social distancing necessary to avoid a second COVID-19 epidemic wave: a modelling study for North East London 

“…Our results suggest that lockdown is a highly effective strategy in reducing infections and mortality, and that lifting of lockdown fully in the near term would likely lead to a resurgence of cases and a secondary COVID-19 peak, as shown by other modelling studies [13][14][15][16][17].…”

“…Our ndings suggest that, if some level of social distancing remains in place, with daily contacts at most 45-55% of that pre-COVID-19 depending on the assumed level of infection that is asymptomatic, a potential second wave would be much less severe. Although previous studies have modelled the potential impact of social distancing on viral spread [14][15][16], our study is the rst to quantify the average number of daily contacts per person required for viral prevention and control in a setting in the UK later this year. We illustrate that small changes to the current social distancing measures would allow hospitals and ICUs to operate within capacity.…”

“…Since the onset of the epidemic in the UK, mathematical modelling has been widely used to understand the spread of COVID-19 across different settings [12], and to design optimal strategies to reduce future burden and prevent a second wave. Different mathematical models have been utilised: deterministic models on whole populations and rooted in using equations tracking Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) populations [13], sometimes age-strati ed [14,15]; and stochastic i.e. individual-based models [16,17] for transmission between individuals in a population.…”

Shielding from covid-19 should be stratified by risk

“…Several preprints have modelled “stratify and shield” strategies based on enhanced protection of the vulnerable while easing or removing constraints on others 345678. They all aim at identifying groups that are at high risk of dying from covid-19 and are therefore shielded against risk of infection.…”

State-level needs for social distancing and contact tracing to contain COVID-19 in the United States 

“…However, it should be noted that increased testing capacity does not necessarily lead to increased rate of testing if individuals are unaware, unwilling, or unable to be tested29 . Having contact tracing and date of symptoms onset data would enable us to compute a better estimate of the current testing and contact This age-stratification is important for designing and evaluating social distancing and testing strategies that are targeted towards the elderly population, which is at higher risk of COVID-19-induced hospitalization and death30 . As reopening the economy becomes an imperative for states across the US, age-or risk-targeted interventions may be a valuable tool to mitigate the burden of the pandemic.In sum, we use a data-driven mathematical modeling approach to study the impacts of social distancing, testing, and contact tracing on the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2.…”