Prediction of the start of the grass pollen season for the southern part of the Netherlands

Driessen, M. N. B. M.; Herpen, R.M.A. van; Smithuis, L. O. M. J.

doi:10.1080/00173139009429978

Cited by 30 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 4 publications

(2 reference statements)

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“…start dates and mean monthly October and December temperatures (Table 5) helped to illustrate the relationship between start dates and winter temperatures. The UKCIP02 Climate Change Scenarios are based on data from 1961-1990(Hulme et al 2002. Consequently, there is a degree of error in this analysis because predicted temperature increases for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s were added to the 1995-2004 mean of October and December temperatures recorded at Pershore.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…pollen seasons. A threshold method, such as defining the start of the pollen season as the day when the cumulative daily count reached a certain figure (Σ75 or Σ100 method) (Dreissen et al 1989(Dreissen et al , 1990Adams-Groom et al 2002) or by defining the beginning and end of the season as the first and last days when the daily pollen count is greater than or equal to a certain threshold (Sanchez-Mesa et al 2003), was not used in this study because in some years very little pollen was recorded in the season and so mandatory thresholds may not have been reached. Instead, retrospective methods that define the season as the period in which 90% (Nilsson and Persson 1981), 95% (Goldberg et al 1988) and 98% (Emberlin et al 1993) of the total season's catch occurred were investigated.…”

Section: Analysis Of Pollen Seasonsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Changes in the pollen seasons of the early flowering trees Alnus spp. and Corylus spp. in Worcester, United Kingdom, 1996–2005

Emberlin

Smith

et al. 2006

Int J Biometeorol

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Previous work on Betula spp. (birch) in the UK and at five sites in Europe has shown that pollen seasons for this taxon have tended to become earlier by about 5-10 days per decade in most regions investigated over the last 30 years. This pattern has been linked to the trend to warmer winters and springs in recent years. However, little work has been done to investigate the changes in the pollen seasons for the early flowering trees. Several of these, such as Alnus spp. and Corylus spp., have allergens, which cross-react with those of Betula spp., and so have a priming effect on allergic people. This paper investigates pollen seasons for Alnus spp. and Corylus spp. for the years 1996-2005 at Worcester, in the West Midlands, United Kingdom. Pollen data for daily average counts were collected using a Burkard volumetric trap sited on the exposed roof of a three-story building. The climate is western maritime. Meteorological data for daily temperatures (maximum and minimum) and rainfall were obtained from the local monitoring sites. The local area up to approximately 10 km surrounding the site is mostly level terrain with some undulating hills and valleys. The local vegetation is mixed farmland and deciduous woodland. The pollen seasons for the two taxa investigated are typically late December or early January to late March. Various ways of defining the start and end of the pollen seasons were considered for these taxa, but the most useful was the 1% method whereby the season is deemed to have started when 1% of the total catch is achieved and to have ended when 99% is reached. The cumulative catches (in grains/m(3)) for Alnus spp. varied from 698 (2001) to 3,467 (2004). For Corylus spp., they varied from 65 (2001) to 4,933 (2004). The start dates for Alnus spp. showed 39 days difference in the 10 years (earliest 2000 day 21, latest 1996 day 60). The end dates differed by 26 days and the length of season differed by 15 days. The last 4 years in the set had notably higher cumulative counts than the first 2, but there was no trend towards earlier starts. For Corylus spp. start days also differed by 39 days (earliest 1999 day 5, latest 1996 day 44). The end date differed by 35 days and length of season by 26 days. Cumulative counts and lengths of season showed a distinct pattern of alternative high (long) and low (short) years. There is some evidence of a synchronous pattern for Alnus spp.. These patterns show some significant correlations with temperature and rainfall through the autumn, winter and early spring, and some relationships with growth degree 4s and chill units, but the series is too short to discern trends. The analysis has provided insight to the variation in the seasons for these early flowering trees and will form a basis for future work on building predictive models for these taxa.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Analysis Of Pollen Seasonsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in the pollen seasons of the early flowering trees Alnus spp. and Corylus spp. in Worcester, United Kingdom, 1996–2005

Emberlin

Smith

et al. 2006

Int J Biometeorol

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show abstract

“…The techniques considered in this study included the Σ75 method, whereby the start of the pollen season is calculated as the day when the cumulative daily count reaches 75 pollen grains (Dreissen et al 1989(Dreissen et al , 1990Adams-Groom et al 2002). However, this method is used for defining the start of the season and not the end, and as a result was not used.…”

Section: Meteorological Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors that determine the severity of Betula spp. pollen seasons in Poland (Poznań and Krakow) and the United Kingdom (Worcester and London)

et al. 2007

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The aim of this paper is to analyse variations in the severity of Betula pollen seasons, particularly in relation to meteorological parameters at four sites, Poznań and Krakow in Poland, and Worcester and London in the United Kingdom. Results show that there is a significant relationship between Betula pollen season severity and weather conditions both in the year before pollination and in the same year that pollen is released from the plant. Furthermore, it is likely that the magnitude of birch pollen seasons in Poznań, Worcester and London is linked in some way to different phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Significant positive relationships exist between birch pollen counts at Poznań and temperatures, rainfall and averages of the NAO in the year before pollination. An opposite relationship is evident at the two sites studied in the United Kingdom. There were significant positive correlations between the severity of birch pollen seasons recorded at Worcester and temperatures and averages of the NAO during the winter and spring in the year of pollination, and negative correlations at both Worcester and London with similar variables from the previous year. In addition, Betula pollen seasons in Krakow do not appear to be influenced by the NAO, which is probably the result of Krakow having a more continental climate.

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“…In this analysis two different methods have been used to define the start of the season. One method identifies the start date as the day when the cumulative daily average pollen count reaches 75 (known as the sum75 method), as used by Driessen et al (1990). This method is useful in forecasting but is liable to bias by the differing abundance of pollen from year to year.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The trend to earlier birch pollen seasons in the U.K.: A biotic response to changes in weather conditions?

Emberlin

Mullins

Corden

et al. 1997

Grana

120

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Prediction of the start of the grass pollen season for the southern part of the Netherlands

Cited by 30 publications

References 4 publications

Changes in the pollen seasons of the early flowering trees Alnus spp. and Corylus spp. in Worcester, United Kingdom, 1996–2005

Changes in the pollen seasons of the early flowering trees Alnus spp. and Corylus spp. in Worcester, United Kingdom, 1996–2005

Factors that determine the severity of Betula spp. pollen seasons in Poland (Poznań and Krakow) and the United Kingdom (Worcester and London)

The trend to earlier birch pollen seasons in the U.K.: A biotic response to changes in weather conditions?

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