Prediction of Surgery Times and Scheduling of Operation Theaters in Optholmology Department

Abstract

This paper presents the framework for forecasting the surgery time by taking into account the surgical environment in an ophthalmology department (experience of surgeon in years, experience of anesthetist in years, staff experience in years, type of anesthesia etc.). The estimation of surgery times is done using three techniques, such as the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Multiple Linear Regression Analysis (MLRA) and the results of estimation accuracy were compared. Though the developed framework is general, it is illustrated for three ophthalmologic surgeries such as the cataract surgery, corneal transplant surgery and Oculoplastic surgery. The framework is validated by using data obtained from a local hospital. It is hypothesized that by accurately knowing the surgery times, one can schedule the operations optimally resulting in the efficient utilization of the operating rooms. This increase in the efficiency is demonstrated through computer simulations of the operating theater.

Case study of the prediction of elective surgery durations in a New Zealand teaching hospital

“…Kayis et al 1 further categorised the second approach into three main lines of research methods: (a) identifying the most significant factors causing the variability of surgery durations, (b) finding suitable statistical distributions that fit the data, and (c) using regression models for prediction. More recently, surgery durations have been estimated using non-regression methods such as Bayesian methods, 2 neural networks 3 and random forests. 4 The scope of application for these tools differs considerably by the number of surgical specialities included and the number of hospitals involved.…”

Sensor, Signal, and Imaging Informatics: Evidence-Based Health Informatics

“…This provides first estimates if the medical service is delivered effectively by the medical device (e.g. [6,9,10]).…”

“…Models can be built to describe surgical procedures. [6] uses such a model to predict surgery times and support the scheduling of the operation theatre. [7] automatically identifies the current surgical phase or action with the goal of triggering events or assistance that are required or desired at specific moments during surgery.…”

Surgical Workflow Management Schemata for Cataract Procedures

“…In addition, the surgeon might be supported by a process navigation system that proposes next work steps until completion of the intervention. Based on the current progress of the intervention, the prediction of the completion might be calculated for the preparation of the next patient [90] and the generated workflow schema can also be used to simulate different variants of cataract surgeries and to simulate the effect of missing supplies etc. [91].…”