2020
DOI: 10.1002/hpm.3046
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Case study of the prediction of elective surgery durations in a New Zealand teaching hospital

Abstract: We present an elective surgery redesign project involving several New Zealand hospitals that is primarily data-driven. One of the project objectives is to improve the predictions of surgery durations. We address this task by considering two approaches: (a) linear regression modelling, and (b) improvement of the data quality. For (a) we evaluate the accuracy of predictions using two performance measures. These predictions are compared to the surgeons' estimates that may subsequently be adjusted. We demonstrate … Show more

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Cited by 6 publications
(6 citation statements)
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References 15 publications
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“…However, general and plastic surgeons underestimated the time required for procedures, while orthopedic surgeons overestimated them by a small margin. These findings are consistent with previous studies that have identified the challenges associated with accurate time predictions in the OR [ 23 , 24 , 25 ]. The implications of these findings are significant for healthcare providers.…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 93%
“…However, general and plastic surgeons underestimated the time required for procedures, while orthopedic surgeons overestimated them by a small margin. These findings are consistent with previous studies that have identified the challenges associated with accurate time predictions in the OR [ 23 , 24 , 25 ]. The implications of these findings are significant for healthcare providers.…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 93%
“…To evaluate the predictive models we split the data into training and testing data based on the year of operations with the intention of simulating real-world settings where past records are used to predict upcoming events in the future [ 7 , 14 , 24 27 ]. The training dataset included elective operations from November 2014 to June 2019, a total of 41,794 operations, and the testing dataset contained operations from July 2019 to June 2020, a total of 10,377 operations.…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…One aspect that helps to optimise OR usage is having a more precise booking of OR schedules [ 7 , 8 ]. It has been shown that accurate estimation of operation durations may result in a higher efficiency of ORs [ 9 , 10 ].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…We consider a surgical dataset studied by Soh et al [20] as part of a research collaboration between the University of Auckland and the Waitemata District Health Board (DHB). The Waitemata DHB is the largest in New Zealand by catchment population, and provides both acute and elective statefunded surgical services at operating theatres across three sites: North Shore Hospital (within the main building or the Elective Surgery Centre) and Waitakere Hospital.…”
Section: Jma To Predict Surgery Durationsmentioning
confidence: 99%