Prediction of Rainfall Classification of Java Island with ANN-Feature Expansion and Ordinary Kriging

Abstract

Precipitation is one of the most important climatic variables in many aspects of our daily lives. High rainfall intensity can cause floods, landslides, and other natural disasters. Therefore, rainfall prediction is important for predicting natural disasters, assisting farmers in production decisions, and crop harvesting. In this research, a system is built to create a rainfall prediction map using a machine learning approach and spatial interpolation algorithms in Java, Indonesia. In the field of weather prediction, the artificial neural network approach is a popular machine learning method. The artificial neural network (ANN) method is a method that has the advantage of studying connections in the previously unknown hidden layer between input data and output data through training procedures. By using the ANN method, historical weather and climate data can be applied to create a classification model and predict rainfall classes. The classification of data is determined based on the attributes of historical weather and climate data, namely temperature, humidity, air pressure, evaporation, sunlight, and the level of rainfall in the time range per day and month. From the results of the ANN modeling, it was found that the 5C month model with an accuracy value of 89% as the best monthly ANN model, and the 6C day model with an accuracy value of 81% as the best daily ANN model. After going through ANN modeling, there is a spatial interpolation algorithm that is often used to estimate rainfall, namely Ordinary Kriging. The Ordinary Kriging approach is used to reduce the estimated variance and estimate the rainfall value in the case study area. After going through Ordinary Kriging modeling, a rainfall prediction map for the next six months and seven days is made based on the coordinates as a result of the research. The results of this research are rainfall prediction maps for the next six months and the next seven days on Java Island.

Pemetaan Sebaran Hujan Rancangan Menggunakan Interpolasi Kriging di DAS Kali Lamong

“…Sehingga data sampel yang digunakan harus bersifat stasioner, tidak tergantung suatu trend, dan tidak terdapat kasus outlier [12]. Jenis semivariogram tipe Gaussian adalah yang paling sesuai untuk hujan di Pulau Jawa [13], [14]. Berikut merupakan rumus yang digunakan dalam metode ini [15]:…”