Prediction of Pipe-Jacking Forces Using a Bayesian Updating Approach

Abstract

An accurate estimation of the jacking forces likely to be experienced during microtunnelling is a key design concern for the design of pipe segments, the location of intermediate jacking stations and the efficacy of the pipe jacking project itself. This paper presents a Bayesian updating approach for the prediction of jacking forces during microtunnelling. The proposed framework is applied to two pipe jacking case histories completed in the UK including a 275 m drive in silt and silty sand and a 1237 m drive in mudstone. To benchmark the Bayesian predictions, a 'classical' optimisation technique, namely genetic algorithms, is also implemented. The results show that predictions of pipe jacking forces using the prior best estimate of model input parameters provide a significant over-prediction of the monitored jacking forces for both drives. This highlights the difficulty in capturing the complex geotechnical conditions during tunnelling within prescriptive design approaches and the importance of robust back-analysis techniques. Bayesian updating is also shown to be a very effective option where significant improvements in the mean predictions, and associated variance, of the total jacking force are obtained as more data is acquired from the drive.

Study on the Effect of Large Cross-Section Quasi-Rectangular Pipe Jacking near Side Crossing Viaduct Piles in Soft Soil Areas

“…et al [14][15][16] thoroughly examined the mechanism of soil disturbance, additional thrust on the excavation surface, friction of the pipe jacking machine with the soil, friction of the subsequent pipeline with the soil, and grouting pressure. Sheil et al's [17] investigation into the process by which pipe jacking disturbs the soil led to the development of a formula for predicting the jacking force of rectangular jacking pipes with large cross sections. Ma et al [18,19] suggested a pipe-soil contact model and its associated computing method for rectangular jacking pipe.…”

Assessment of Bayesian Changepoint Detection Methods for Soil Layering Identification Using Cone Penetration Test Data

“…Bayesian methods have gained significant attention in geotechnical engineering. They been employed to assess the probability of slope failure [23][24][25][26][27] and to predict tunnel Geotechnics 2024, 4 383 deformation [28][29][30][31][32], excavation movements [33][34][35][36][37], pipe-jacking forces [38], and pile driveability [39]. The advantages of Bayesian methods in geotechnical engineering include the ability to integrate multiple sources of information, such as expert opinions, field data, and laboratory tests, to reduce uncertainties and improve decision-making.…”

Behavioral Investigations of Three Parallel Large Reinforced Concrete Circular Pipes with the Construction of Pipe Jacking

“…Since its application in the Northern Pacific Road laying project in the United States, the pipe jacking method is gradually attracting elevated levels of attention and is becoming an important method for constructing underground engineering. With a developmental history of over 200 years, it is quite mature and has recently been successfully applied in the context of practical engineering, such as in tunnels, rainwater box culverts, and underground passages [1][2][3]. In view of previous studies, researchers have conducted many studies on the safety and efficiency of pipe jacking engineering.…”