Prediction of Oceanic Rogue Waves Through Tracking Energy Fluxes

Abstract

Here, we show that location of an upcoming rogue wave can be inferred, well in advance, from spatial distribution of energy flux across the ocean surface. We use a statistical approach, and by investigating hundreds of numerical rogue wave realizations in weakly nonlinear wave fields establish a quantitative metric via which predictions can be made. Direct simulations are performed by a higher-order spectral method (HOS), and JONSWAP distribution is used to initialize the wave field. The presented metric may establish a readily achievable measure to identify turbulent locations within a sea, through which timely preventive measures can be taken to minimize damages to lives and properties.