Prediction of Multi-Scale Meteorological Drought Characteristics over the Yangtze River Basin Based on CMIP6

Yu, Jiaxin; Zhou, Han; Huang, Jikun; Yuan, Yanbin

doi:10.3390/w14192996

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…They found that the precipitation, soil moisture and runoff would increase, while more extreme and exceptional drought events were projected to occur in the future. Yu et al (2022) analysed the evolution of meteorological drought identified by SPI at multiple time scales in the YZB based on projections from 19 CMIP6 models and found that the YZB would become wetter but the variability would increase in the future, resulting in more severe drought events. Wang et al (2020) also found that the meteorological drought frequency and severity identified by SPEI would increase under 1.5 and 2°C warming scenarios.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intensification of drought propagation over the Yangtze River basin under climate warming

Feng

Yuan

2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought is critical for better understanding hydrological drought. However, how climate change would affect the drought propagation has not been well studied, especially over regions mixed with massive human interventions. The study attempts to explore changes in the characteristics of meteorological and hydrological droughts, and the corresponding drought propagation under different climate change scenarios across six watersheds over the Yangtze River basin (YZB). Seasonal meteorological and hydrological droughts were characterized by using standardized precipitation and streamflow index at 3‐month scales (SPI‐3 and SSI‐3), which were calculated using precipitation simulations from 15 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models and streamflow simulations from PCR‐GLOBWB 2.0 hydrological model driven by CMIP6 outputs. Drought propagation characteristics, including propagation ratio, lag and lengthening, were then determined. Both meteorological and hydrological drought durations would shorten, while their drought severity would increase excluding a downstream watershed. About 40%–50% of meteorological droughts could develop into hydrological droughts, with lag time less than 1.4 months and lengthening time less than 1.8 months, respectively. Under climate warming, the drought propagation ratio would increase over two watersheds, while decrease and then increase over three watersheds. The drought propagation lag time is expected to prolong over the regions above Cuntan under moderate emission scenario, while prolong first and then shorten over most watersheds under high‐emission scenario. The drought propagation lengthening time would shorten over most watersheds excluding a downstream watershed, where drought conditions would further worsen during drought propagation. This study calls for climate mitigation efforts to suppress drought aggravation in the propagation particularly for the downstream YZB.

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Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intensification of drought propagation over the Yangtze River basin under climate warming

Feng

Yuan

2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River will face severe drought risks in the future, especially from 2030 to 2040 [50]. As the time scale increases, the number of drought events in the YRB first increases and then decreases, increasing the average duration and intensity [51]. Generally, the number of monthly scale events is the lowest, the number of seasonal scale events is the highest, and the harm of annual scale events is the greatest.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projection of Meteorological Dryness/Wetness Evolution Based on Multi-Model Scenarios in Poyang Lake Basin, China

Deng¹,

Jiang

TianYu

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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Based on the projections of three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios of three climate models of CMIP6, this study analyzed the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) to understand the future meteorological dryness/wetness changes in the Poyang Lake basin (PLB) from 2021 to 2100. The effect of temperature change on the dryness and wetness variation was explored by comparing the trends of SPEI and standardized precipitation index (SPI) at multiple-time scales and different SSPs scenarios. The results indicate that the frequency of drought events may increase by 1.1~3.8% than the historical period in the three scenarios, and they may be higher than that of wetness events in the future of this century. Cumulative months of drought events are higher in most decades than the wetness events, and especially in the 2090s. A total of 43 months may suffer drought events in the 2090s under the SSP585 scenario, which is more than twice the wetness events. With the enhanced concentration of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, both the frequency of droughts and the proportion of extreme droughts show a significant increasing trend at 99% confidence in PLB. The spatial distribution of net precipitation is generally in the southwest–northeast pattern, yet it is still in different values in most scenarios; thus, the uncertainty of dryness/wetness spatial conditions should be considered. The SPI detects more wetness events and a more intensive wetting trend, while the SPEI shows the opposite. The difference between SPI and SPEI gradually increases with GHG emission concentration, and may even lead to contrary conclusion in the last two decades at a 48-month scale under the SSP245 and 585 scenarios, indicating the unneglectable impact of increasing temperature and evapotranspiration on the dryness/wetness conditions in the future. The research results can help to predict the evolution pattern of dry and wet occurrence in the PLB in the future and promote flood/drought control and disaster mitigation.

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“…This basin is situated within a humid and semi-humid region with a remarkable monsoon climate. This implies that its response to climate change is intricate and volatile, as reflected in drought events with short-term fluctuations [44]. Consequently, it is susceptible to recurring seasonal drought events [45].…”

Section: Study Area and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Synchronized Structure and Teleconnection Patterns of Meteorological Drought Events over the Yangtze River Basin, China

Liu,

Gao,

Zhu

et al. 2023

Water

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Investigating the synchronized structure and teleconnection patterns of meteorological drought events (MDEs) contributes to elucidating drought’s evolution. In this study, the CN05.1 gridded meteorological dataset from 1961 to 2021 was utilized to calculate the 3-month standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI-3) for each grid in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). Based on these SPEI-3 series, the grid-based MDEs were then extracted. Subsequently, event synchronization and complex networks were employed to construct the MDE synchronized network over the YRB. This network was used to identify the MDEs’ topological structure, synchronized subregions, and representative grids. Finally, the MDE characteristics and MDE teleconnection patterns of individual subregions were investigated. The results of the MDE topological structure show that the northeastern portion of the YRB tends to experience widespread MDEs, while specific areas in the upper reaches are prone to localized MDEs. Synchronous MDEs mainly propagate along the central pathway and the eastern pathway, which display relatively low MDE spatial coherence. The YRB is partitioned into eight MDE synchronized subregions, each exhibiting distinct characteristics in terms of the frequency, duration, total severity, and peak of MDEs, as well as MDE temporal frequency distributions. Among all teleconnection factors, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts a strong influence on MDEs in all subregions, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) shows a significant association with MDEs in all subregions except for Subregion 3 in the southeast, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) displays a significant influence on MDEs in the southern subregions of the YRB, and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has a more pronounced influence on MDEs in the northern subregions. This study provides valuable insights on drought’s evolution within the YRB and offers guidance to policymakers for advanced preventive measures.

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Prediction of Multi-Scale Meteorological Drought Characteristics over the Yangtze River Basin Based on CMIP6

Cited by 8 publications

References 48 publications

Intensification of drought propagation over the Yangtze River basin under climate warming

Intensification of drought propagation over the Yangtze River basin under climate warming

Projection of Meteorological Dryness/Wetness Evolution Based on Multi-Model Scenarios in Poyang Lake Basin, China

Synchronized Structure and Teleconnection Patterns of Meteorological Drought Events over the Yangtze River Basin, China

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