Prediction of Malaria incidence in mainland China

Abstract

Globally, the malaria epidemic remains serious, which poses an enormous threat to human health. Although China has made remarkable progress in the prevention and control of malaria, it still faces the potential for imported risks of this infectious disease. In this study, the SVR, GM(1,1), LR, and Exponential Smoothing models were applied respectively to predict the incidence of Malaria in mainland China. The results showed that the SVR model was the optimum model, and its prediction performance has higher than that of GM(1,1), LR, and Exponential Smoothing models.