Prediction of diffuse horizontal irradiance using a new climate zone model

Abreu, Edgar F.M.; Canhoto, Paulo

doi:10.1016/j.rser.2019.04.055

Cited by 38 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…The usual approach for Dh prediction using empirical models is the utilization of a correlation factor named diffuse fraction defined as fd = Dh/Gh . Abreu [ 18 ] verified that many authors present the same model but for different location to calculate the diffuse fraction based on the clearness index ( Mt ). Those models were developed using several functional forms such as second-degree polynomial as a function of Mt , higher polynomial degrees, and double exponential forms.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Abreu et al. [ 18 ] presented a review of 121 hourly models in which Mt is the sole predictor to compute Dh .…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There are many empirical correlation models between Mt and fd that are commonly used because of their simplicity and acceptable performance in various geographic and climatic conditions [17]. Abreu et al [18] presented a review of 121 hourly models in which Mt is the sole predictor to compute Dh.…”

Section: Empirical Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Prediction of site-specific solar diffuse horizontal irradiance from two input variables in Colombia

Miranda¹,

Fierro²,

Narváez³

et al. 2021

Heliyon

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Accurate measurements of diffuse irradiance are essential to design a solar photovoltaic system. However, in-situ radiation measurements in Colombia, South America, can be limited by the costs of the implementation of meteorological stations equipped with a pyranometer mounted on a sun tracker with a shading device, which is required to measure diffuse irradiance. Furthermore, the databases found in Colombia contain missing data, which raises the need for implementing models that are trained with very few features. In this paper, we introduce a methodology based on simple angle calculations and a regression model to predict half-hourly diffuse horizontal solar irradiance from only the measure of global horizontal irradiance and a geographic coordinate as inputs. Using measurements taken from the national solar radiation database for 6 different sites in Colombia and state-of-the-art machine learning models for regression, we validated the accuracy prediction of the proposed methodology. The results showed a prediction error ranging from 5 . 86 to 9 . 36 [ W/m 2 ], and a coefficient of determination ranging from 0 . 9974 to 0 . 9983. The data-set used along with the feature engineering process and the deep neural network model created can be found in a Github repository referenced in the paper.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Abreu et al. [ 18 ] presented a review of 121 hourly models in which Mt is the sole predictor to compute Dh .…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Prediction of site-specific solar diffuse horizontal irradiance from two input variables in Colombia

Miranda¹,

Fierro²,

Narváez³

et al. 2021

Heliyon

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“…The correlations between K h d and K h T allowed adjustments of third-order polynomials, as recommended by Abreu et al [43]. Polynomial regression equations were also generated for the K h T intervals 0 ≤ K h T < 0.55 (which includes cloudy and partially cloudy sky coverage) and K h T ≥ 0.55 (partly open and open sky) to improve the performance of the estimates.…”

Section: Radiometric Fractions Of Diffuse Radiationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diurnal Evolution and Estimates of Hourly Diffuse Radiation Based on Horizontal Global Radiation, in Cerrado-Amazon Transition, Brazil

et al. 2023

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In the Cerrado-Amazonian ecotone in the State of Mato Grosso, intensely altered by anthropic action, the knowledge and processes of energy conversion and energy balance are still incipient, making the monitoring and modeling of diffuse radiation essential for several applications. The objective of this study was to evaluate the seasonality of the diurnal evolution and estimate the hourly diffuse radiation (Hdh) and incident radiation in the horizontal plane between June 2011 and October 2016. The instantaneous measurements (5 min) of diffuse radiation underwent geometric, astronomical, and anisotropic corrections, with subsequent hourly integrations. The seasonality of diffuse radiation and its radiometric fractions was evaluated. The estimates were made considering total and seasonal data groupings (water stations in the region) and in different cloudiness classes (atmospheric transmissivity index—KTh). The diurnal behavior of diffuse radiation (Hdh) was similar to that of global radiation and at the top of the atmosphere, with maximum values at solar noon. The correlations between Kdh and KTh showed third-order polynomial behavior, with maximum observed values of Kdh ranging from 0.8 to 0.9, for KTh less than 0.2. Estimation equations based on radiometric fractions underestimated the values of diffuse radiation, with a better performance presented by models adjusted in annual data groupings. Among the parameterized models for estimating diffuse radiation obtained in the literature, those calibrated regionally in this study, together with those developed for tropical regions, presented better statistical performances.

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“…where, j equals -1 for the correlation coefficient (R) only, while for others indicators is equal to 1, Yj is the median of scaled values of indicator j, Yij is the scaled value of indicator j for model i. Higher value of GPI represents better accuracy of the model (Abreu et al, 2019).…”

Section: Global Performance Index (Gpi)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the Diffuse Solar Radiation by using a New Modeling over Saudi Arabia

Khalil¹,

Rahoma²

2021

American Journal of Applied Sciences

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Within the arranging and execution assessment of solar energy projects, particularly within the planning and estimation of solar photovoltaic sources as elective energy sources within the future, exact evaluation of Diffuse Solar Radiation (DSR) is one of the essential and basic issues. The target of this article is to use the new model to predict DSR in four different locations in Saudi Arabia. The author explored the available meteorological and radiation data. The data covers the 25 years from 1990 to 2014 and were measured at Al-Baha, Abha, Jeddah and Taif locations in Saudi Arabia. Through detailed statistical evaluation and analysis, 19 empirical models were tested to construct the best empirical model to estimate the monthly average daily DSR of Saudi Arabia. Using widely used statistical errors, namely MBE, MPE, RMSE, U95, R, t-test and GPI the proposed correlation model was compared with 19 models provided in the literature. Through this analysis, the cubic empirical equation model is selected as the good model. Compared with these existing models, this model reveals accurate results with minimal statistical errors. Based on these results, Model 22 gives the highest GPI value. The conclusion is the cubic equation model of the diffusion fraction (i.e., D/G = 0.215+2.123 (S/So) -3.547(S/So) 2 +5.142 (S/So) 3 is the best agreement model that has been mentioned in the previous discussion. This model is a generalized equation in Saudi Arabia, which can forecast the monthly average daily diffuse radiation on the horizontal plane at any site under similar climatic conditions without the measured climatic conditions. Experts or architects can use this model to perform site selection and technical and financial evaluation of solar energy applications and photovoltaic technology.

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Prediction of diffuse horizontal irradiance using a new climate zone model

Cited by 38 publications

References 63 publications

Prediction of site-specific solar diffuse horizontal irradiance from two input variables in Colombia

Prediction of site-specific solar diffuse horizontal irradiance from two input variables in Colombia

Diurnal Evolution and Estimates of Hourly Diffuse Radiation Based on Horizontal Global Radiation, in Cerrado-Amazon Transition, Brazil

Forecasting the Diffuse Solar Radiation by using a New Modeling over Saudi Arabia

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