Prediction of Crash Severity as a Way of Road Safety Improvement: The Case of Saint Petersburg, Russia

Abstract

This article investigates factors that explain road crash severity levels in Saint Petersburg, Russia, during the 2015–2021 period. The research takes into account factors such as lighting conditions, weather conditions, infrastructure factors, human factors, accident types, and vehicle category and color to assess their influence on crash severity. The most influential accident type is run-off-road crashes, which are associated with an 11.2% increase in fatal accidents. The biggest reason for the increase in fatal accidents due to road infrastructure conditions is road barrier shortcomings (2.8%). Road infrastructure conditions, such as a lack of road lighting, have a significant effect on fatal outcomes, increasing them by 12.6%, and this is the most influential factor in the analysis. The obtained results may serve as a basis for Saint Petersburg authorities to develop new road safety policies.

Analyzing and forecasting road traffic accidents and their consequences: a case study of the Udmurt republic

“…In the work [4], the impact of various factors on the severity of RTA consequences is investigated using probit models. It was found that the absence of road lighting plays a key role in the severity of RTAs and contributes to a 10%-14% increase in mortality.…”

Construction of a Measurement System with GPS RTK for Operational Control of Street Lighting

“…Street lighting studies focus on the Energies 2022, 15, 9106 2 of 22 comparative analysis of the obtained illumination levels of the number/type of incidents on the road [18][19][20][21]. The vast majority of studies show an unambiguous relationship depicting a decrease in road incidents with increased lighting levels [22][23][24]. Some researchers did not see the above correlations in their analyses, indicating a lack of effect after the use of lighting [25][26][27] or even a back-to-back effect [28][29][30], a well-lit road with the entire road lane area may cause a decrease in driver attentiveness or have the effect of increasing the average speed of vehicles [31][32][33].…”