Prediction models for the risk of new-onset hypertension in ethnic Chinese in Taiwan

Abstract

Prediction model for hypertension risk in Chinese is still lacking. We aimed to propose prediction models for new-onset hypertension for ethnic Chinese based on a prospective cohort design on community, which recruited 2506 individuals (50.8% women) who were not hypertensive at the baseline . Total 1029 cases of new-onset hypertension developed during a median of 6.15 (interquartile range, 4.04-9.02) years of followup. In the clinical model, gender (2 points), age (8 points), body mass index (10 points), systolic blood pressure (19 points) and diastolic blood pressure (7 points) were assigned. The biochemical measures, including white blood count (3 points), fasting glucose (1 point), uric acid (3 points), additional to above clinical variables, were constructed. The areas under the receiver operative characteristic curves (AUCs) were 0.732 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.712-0.752) for the point-based clinical model and 0.735 (95% CI, 0.715-0.755) for the point-based biochemical model. The coefficient-based models had a good performance (AUC, 0.737-0.741). The point-based clinical model had a similar net reclassification improvement as the coefficient-based clinical model (P ¼ 0.30), and had a higher improvement than the point-based biochemical model (P ¼ 0.015). We concluded that the point-based clinical model could be considered as the first step to identify high-risk populations for hypertension among Chinese.

Development of a risk prediction model for incident hypertension in a working-age Japanese male population

“…14,[16][17][18][19][20] These findings are also consistent with the results of other epidemiologic studies. [27][28][29][30][31][32] Additionally, excessive alcohol intake was a predictor of incident hypertension in this study, and the present model included this variable in its risk calculation.…”

“…By contrast, previously reported risk prediction models did not include data regarding alcohol intake, because in those studies, these data itself were lacking 18,20 or alcohol intake was not a significant predictor of hypertension. 14,16,17,19 However, excessive alcohol intake has been shown to be significantly associated with an increased risk of incident hypertension in several other studies. [33][34][35] Therefore, our results regarding the relationship between excessive alcohol intake and the risk of hypertension are somewhat in line with those reported by previous studies.…”

“…Several risk prediction models for incident hypertension have been recently developed in Western, [13][14][15][16][17] Middle Eastern 18 and Asian 19,20 countries. Most of these models 13,14,[16][17][18][19][20] consist of simple clinical parameters and self-reported data, including information regarding lifestyle factors.…”

“…Most of these models 13,14,[16][17][18][19][20] consist of simple clinical parameters and self-reported data, including information regarding lifestyle factors. The simplicity and user-friendliness of these models allow for their easy application in daily clinical practice as tools designed to prevent hypertension.…”

Validation of the Korean Genome Epidemiology Study Risk Score to Predict Incident Hypertension in a Large Nationwide Korean Cohort

“…Another study in a Chinese cohort showed that the Framingham model had good calibration but lower discrimination than risk models developed from the original cohort. 12 Differences in ethnicities based on genetic variation, cultural or environmental factors, and socioeconomic status may influence the etiology, prevalence, progression, and outcome of various diseases. 23 Many previous studies show differences in the prevalence of CVD risk factors across ethnicities.…”