Validation of the Korean Genome Epidemiology Study Risk Score to Predict Incident Hypertension in a Large Nationwide Korean Cohort

Lim, Nam-Kyoo; Lee, Joung-Won; Park, Hyun-Young

doi:10.1253/circj.cj-15-1334

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Information pertaining to patients and their medical records is available in the South Korean NHIS database, 21 which was used previously to conduct an epidemiological study. 22 Our assessment of the NHIS-NSC database showed that the prevalence of AF increased progressively with age and was higher among men than women in all age groups, and overall prevalence of AF increased every year (from 0.27% in 2002 to 0.78% in 2013), particularly in men aged ≥30 years and women aged ≥60 years, findings which were inconsistent with previous studies 8 , 9 and the first report. Prevalence of AF in Europe and the United States was 3–4% in subjects aged 65–69 years and 16–18% in subjects aged ≥85 years, rates which were higher than our results.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 88%

Trend of Prevalence of Atrial Fibrillation and use of Oral Anticoagulation Therapy in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation in South Korea (2002–2013)

Son

Lim

Park

2018

Journal of Epidemiology

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BackgroundThis study examined the annual prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) and its associated comorbidities, as well as the prevalence of warfarin therapy in South Korean patients with AF.MethodsThe National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort database was searched for subjects aged ≥30 years diagnosed with AF from 2002–2013. The prevalence of AF was analyzed by sex and age, as was the current status of warfarin therapy in AF patients according to CHA2DS2-VASc score and comorbidities.ResultsThe age-standardized prevalence of AF in men and women was 0.15% and 0.14%, respectively, in 2002, increasing to 0.54% and 0.39%, respectively, in 2013. In 2013, the prevalence of AF in men and women aged 30–39 years was 0.08% and 0.03%, respectively, increasing to 2.35% and 1.71%, respectively, in those in aged ≥60 years. During 2002–2013, the prevalence of AF in men significantly increased among subjects aged ≥30 years and increased in women aged ≥60 years. The age-standardized prevalence of hypertension and diabetes mellitus among AF patients were markedly increased during 2002–2013. Of these AF patients, 86.1% had a CHA2DS2-VASc score of ≥2; however, only 39.1% of these were receiving warfarin.ConclusionsThe age-standardized prevalence of AF increased 2.89-fold over the 12-year study period. The total number of patients with AF in South Korea has been drastically increasing, due to not only aging society but also increasing age-specific prevalence of AF, especially in middle-aged and elderly individuals. The rate of warfarin therapy increased slightly over the study period but remains low.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 88%

Trend of Prevalence of Atrial Fibrillation and use of Oral Anticoagulation Therapy in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation in South Korea (2002–2013)

Son

Lim

Park

2018

Journal of Epidemiology

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“…The SHIP risk model[ 15 ] from northeast Germany was validated by data from the Danish INTER99, comprising 2887 participants, and it performed well, with an AUC of 0.77 (P = 0.74) and the Hosmer–Lemeshow χ 2 test of 40.6 (P = 2×10 −6 ). The KoGES risk score from Korea was externally validated by a large nationwide Korean cohort[ 33 ]. The discrimination (AUC = 0.733) and calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow χ 2 = 14.85, P = 0.062) of this model were both good.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The discrimination (AUC = 0.733) and calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow χ 2 = 14.85, P = 0.062) of this model were both good. The Framingham model was externally validated by 7 studies[ 12 , 15 , 24 , 33 – 36 ] from different countries ( S3 Table ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It performed well in a study of African-American and Caucasians in the US[ 35 ], a German study[ 15 ] and a British study[ 12 ]. In a large nationwide Korean cohort,[ 33 ]the AUC was acceptable, but this model underestimated hypertension incidence ( p <0.001) in Korea. In the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)[ 34 ], including Caucasian, African-American, Hispanic, and Asian (primarily of Chinese descent) participants, the Framingham model showed better discrimination ability than SBP alone or age-specific DBP categories.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Recent development of risk-prediction models for incident hypertension: An updated systematic review

et al. 2017

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BackgroundHypertension is a leading global health threat and a major cardiovascular disease. Since clinical interventions are effective in delaying the disease progression from prehypertension to hypertension, diagnostic prediction models to identify patient populations at high risk for hypertension are imperative.MethodsBoth PubMed and Embase databases were searched for eligible reports of either prediction models or risk scores of hypertension. The study data were collected, including risk factors, statistic methods, characteristics of study design and participants, performance measurement, etc.ResultsFrom the searched literature, 26 studies reporting 48 prediction models were selected. Among them, 20 reports studied the established models using traditional risk factors, such as body mass index (BMI), age, smoking, blood pressure (BP) level, parental history of hypertension, and biochemical factors, whereas 6 reports used genetic risk score (GRS) as the prediction factor. AUC ranged from 0.64 to 0.97, and C-statistic ranged from 60% to 90%.ConclusionsThe traditional models are still the predominant risk prediction models for hypertension, but recently, more models have begun to incorporate genetic factors as part of their model predictors. However, these genetic predictors need to be well selected. The current reported models have acceptable to good discrimination and calibration ability, but whether the models can be applied in clinical practice still needs more validation and adjustment.

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Development and validation of hypertension prediction models: The Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study_Cardiovascular Disease Association Study (KoGES_CAVAS)

et al. 2022

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Validation of the Korean Genome Epidemiology Study Risk Score to Predict Incident Hypertension in a Large Nationwide Korean Cohort

Cited by 5 publications

References 33 publications

Trend of Prevalence of Atrial Fibrillation and use of Oral Anticoagulation Therapy in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation in South Korea (2002–2013)

Trend of Prevalence of Atrial Fibrillation and use of Oral Anticoagulation Therapy in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation in South Korea (2002–2013)

Recent development of risk-prediction models for incident hypertension: An updated systematic review

Development and validation of hypertension prediction models: The Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study_Cardiovascular Disease Association Study (KoGES_CAVAS)

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