Prediction and Mitigation of Flash Floods in Egypt

Fathy, Ismail; Abd-Elhamid, Hany F.; Negm, Abdelazim M.

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-29635-3_15

Cited by 8 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Recent developments in convection-permitting modeling and nowcasting techniques may lead to improvements (e.g., Coppola et al, 2020), but forecasting the location of small-scale extreme occurrences remains elusive and proper forecasting should adopt probabilistic ensemble approaches (Toros et al, 2018;Armon et al, 2020;Spyrou et al, 2020;Rinat et al, 2021). Risk assessment generally relies on precipitation frequency analysis and intensity-duration-frequency curves (Koutsoyiannis et al, 1998;Koutsoyiannis and Baloutsos, 2000;Ben-Zvi, 2009;Fathy et al, 2020;Nastos et al, 2020), while envelope curves are often used to identify regional upper limits for flood peak discharge (Tarolli et al, 2012;Amponsah et al, 2020). However, the coastal, orographic, and climatic structure of the region, together with the typically small scales of high-impact events and with the relatively scarce availability of long observational records, make extreme frequency analysis challenging (Peleg et al, 2018b;Diakakis et al, 2020;Metzger et al, 2020).…”

Section: Societal Impactmentioning

confidence: 99%

ESD Reviews: Extreme Weather and Societal Impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean

Hochman

Marra

Messori

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Gaining a holistic understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society and ecosystems, is key to supporting future risk reduction and preparedness measures. Here, we provide an overview of the state-of-the-art, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean. This region is situated in a transition zone between subtropical and mid-latitude climates. Extreme weather is mainly governed by the large-scale atmospheric circulation and its interaction with regional synoptic systems, i.e., Cyprus Lows, Red Sea Troughs, Persian Troughs, ‘Sharav’ Lows, and high-pressure systems. Complex orographic features further play an important role in the generation of extreme weather. Most extreme weather events, including heavy precipitation, cold spells, floods and wind storms, are associated with a Cyprus Low or Active Red Sea Trough, whereas heat waves are related with either the Persian Trough and Sub-Tropical High-pressure systems in summer, or the ‘Sharav’ Low during spring time. Heat waves and droughts are projected to significantly increase in both frequency and intensity. In future decades, changes in heavy precipitation frequency and intensity may vary in sign and magnitude depending on the scale, severity and region of interest. There are still relatively large uncertainties concerning the physical understanding and the projected changes of cold spells, wind storms and compound events, as these types of events received comparatively little attention in the literature. We further identify knowledge gaps that relate to the societal impacts of extreme weather. These gaps mainly relate to the effects extreme weather may have on mortality, morbidity and infrastructure in the eastern Mediterranean. Research is currently limited in this context, and we call to strengthen the database of analyzed case-studies. We trust that this can only be suitably accomplished by inter-disciplinary and international regional collaborations, in spite of political unrest.

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Section: Societal Impactmentioning

confidence: 99%

ESD Reviews: Extreme Weather and Societal Impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean

Hochman

Marra

Messori

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…Afouna Village is located in the western region of Beheira governorate in Egypt between the latitude of 30 • 30 52.53 N to 30 • 22 32.51 N, and longitude of 30 • 12 11.09 E to 30 • 1 18.04 E, as shown in Figure 1. The village's total area is estimated to be 148 km 2 , 54% of which includes agricultural areas. The unoccupied desert is about 18.6 km 2 , which represents about 12.5% of the total area, while the inhabited area is about 49.4 km 2 , representing 33.5% of the total area.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A flash flood is one of the most dangerous kinds of floods due to the fact of its fast occurrence, without previous warning [1,2]. The flash flood is a natural disaster with devastating capabilities that destroys houses, infrastructures, properties, cultivated crops, and threatens lives, especially in arid, mountainous regions [3,4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mitigation Plan and Water Harvesting of Flashflood in Arid Rural Communities Using Modelling Approach: A Case Study in Afouna Village, Egypt

Abdeldayem

Eldaghar

Mostafa

et al. 2020

Water

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This paper aims to propose methods to mitigate the risks of flash flood events in arid rural communities with poor infrastructure. A flash flood management case study was conducted at Afouna Village in Egypt, which is characterized by an arid climate and faced a devasting flash flood in 2015. First, the flash flood was modelled and it was found that it corresponds to a 100 year return period flood that led to an almost 13 million m3 total runoff volume. A structural protection approach, using an artificial infiltration pond, was applied to mitigate the flooding risks through water harvesting and recharging the groundwater of the Moghra aquifer. In this study, a novel approach was proposed, which is substituting the low permeability silty sand (2.0 × 10−4 m/s) in the pond area with a high permeability one (9.6 × 10−3 m/s), which will enhance water harvesting and reduce direct evaporation. Modern techniques of hydrological modelling were utilized in order to achieve the optimal use, and harvesting, of flash flood water.

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“…Flash floods are dangerous because they strike with no advance warning after rainfall events (El-Afandi and Morsy 2020; Fathy et al 2019;Atwa 2020). They threaten the lives and livelihoods of people as well as their assets and properties (Parvin et al 2016;Abdeldayem et al 2020;Kumar et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecohydrology and flood risk management under climate vulnerability in relation to the sustainable development goals (SDGs): a case study in Nagaa Mobarak Village, Egypt

et al. 2022

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This article aims to provide a thorough assessment of water quality and quantity incorporating the estimation of future patterns as a result of climate change from economic, environmental and social perspectives. Its scope extends from studying the physical parameters and rainfall patterns to maintaining an environmental flow with a better water quality using ecohydrological techniques. The village of Nagaa Mobarak in Souhag, Egypt, is taken as a case study being in a critical location that is vulnerable to flash floods. This paper managed to quantify change in water quantity and quality due to the impacts of flash floods and climate change. Several traditional engineering alternatives are proposed for flood management such as constructing a dam, a storage pond and a routing channel to the nearest water body; as well as non-traditional ecohydrological alternatives such as constructing a dam with vegetated foreshore, natural levees and constructed wetlands. The results of applying these methods for our case study showed that a hybrid solution that employs both traditional and non-traditional solutions for flood management is optimal. A constructed wetland along a section of the constructed channel for diverting flow into the Nagaa Hammade Canal would decrease the runoff volume and peak time so that the capacity of the Canal is not exceeded in a flood event and purifies the incoming stormwater improving its quality and the health of the ecosystem within the canal. Moreover, our proposed approach was investigated and found to target 10 out of the 17 UN SDGs.

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Prediction and Mitigation of Flash Floods in Egypt

Cited by 8 publications

References 16 publications

ESD Reviews: Extreme Weather and Societal Impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean

ESD Reviews: Extreme Weather and Societal Impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean

Mitigation Plan and Water Harvesting of Flashflood in Arid Rural Communities Using Modelling Approach: A Case Study in Afouna Village, Egypt

Ecohydrology and flood risk management under climate vulnerability in relation to the sustainable development goals (SDGs): a case study in Nagaa Mobarak Village, Egypt

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