Prediction and Classification in Criminal Justice Decision Making

Moving ahead: Five essential elements for working effectively with girls

“…Proper treatment matching is dependent on knowing youths' risk of recidivism. The research indicates that actuarial risk assessment instruments that include factors known to be associated with recidivism are more effective than clinical approaches at predicting recidivism (Andrews & Bonta, 1999;Gottfredson, 1987;Jones, 1996). Moreover, recent studies had found actuarial instruments to predict the recidivism of males and females equally well (Flores, Travis, & Latessa, 2004;Ilacqua, Coulson, Lombardo, & Nutbrown, 1999;Schwalbe, Fraser, Day, & Arnold, 2004).…”

Classifying Violent Versus Nonviolent Offending in a Diverse Sample of Adolescent Juvenile Delinquents

“…Reconfinement is perhaps the most methodologically challenging measure of recidivism (Gottfredson & Tonry, 1987;Sharkey, Furlong, Jimerson, & O'Brien, 2003 "success" rate. States reporting reconfinement data for delinquent offenses in the juvenile system only reported a 12% average recidivism rate, and an 88% "success" rate.…”

How Does the Criminal Justice System Operate from an Empirical Point of View? An Analysis of the Netherlands Case

“…However, since the numbers might lead to fallacies, it is important to understand, from the people that work in the system, what the numbers might mean (Gottfredson 1987). Clearly any analysis of the criminal justice system from an empirical perspective must be open-ended enough to identify and deal with the multiplicity of problems of the data as well as the values, and incentives of the various actors comprising the system in achieving the goals.…”