Predicting the time of arrival of the Tiger mosquito (<i>Aedes albopictus</i>) to new countries based on trade patterns of tyres and plants

Oliveira, Sandra; Capinha, César; Rocha, Jorge

doi:10.1111/1365-2664.14503

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 77 publications

(99 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In the event of introduction via the tire or plant trade, the date of arrival in the country is likely to be close to the date of actual discovery, as predicted by a model suggesting, for Bolivia, a timeframe of 3 to 5 years from 2023 (42) .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 86%

First concrete documentation for presence ofAedes (Stegomyia) albopictusin Bolivia: Dispelling previous anecdotes

Lardeux,

Boussès,

Tejerina-Lardeux

et al. 2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: The presence of Aedes albopictus in Bolivia has been a subject of controversy, lacking concrete documentation until now. Objectives: This study aimed to furnish evidence of Ae. albopictus presence in Bolivia. Methods: Larval breeding sites were sampled in two northern Bolivian localities, Rosario del Yata and San Agustin, both situated in the Beni department within the Vaca Diez province and Guayaramerin Municipio, approximately 10 km apart. Mosquito larvae collected underwent rearing to L4 and adult stages for morphological identification, with some specimens sequenced for confirmation.Findings: Ae. albopictus was identified in multiple breeding sites in both localities, confirming its establishment in the area. This marks the first concrete documentation of the species in Bolivia. The collections (larvae and adults) have been deposited in the Medical Entomology Laboratory of the Universidad Mayor de San Simón in Cochabamba, Bolivia, and the Laboratory of Entomology of the Instituto Nacional de Laboratorios de Salud of the Ministry of Health in La Paz, Bolivia. Main conclusion: Acknowledging its role as a vector for arboviruses like dengue and Chikungunya, Ae. albopictus should be incorporated into the Bolivian National Program of Vector Control for monitoring.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 86%

First concrete documentation for presence ofAedes (Stegomyia) albopictusin Bolivia: Dispelling previous anecdotes

Lardeux,

Boussès,

Tejerina-Lardeux

et al. 2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Predicting the time of arrival of the Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) to new countries based on trade patterns of tyres and plants

Oliveira,

Capinha,

Rocha

2023

Journal of Applied Ecology

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The mosquito Aedes albopictus is a highly invasive species, which continues to widen its range worldwide. International trade is a major driver of its dispersal, in particular the imports of tyres and live plants. As a competent vector of numerous diseases, among which Zika and dengue, the spread of this species raises public health concerns. Based on indicators of trade volumes and trends along 15 years, combined with climatic similarity and geographic distance between countries, we tested a model aimed at estimating the time of arrival of the species in new countries. We used partial least squares regression to model the year of first recording of the species in previously invaded countries. The fitted model was subsequently applied to predict the expected time of arrival in countries where the species is still absent. The model was able to estimate the year of first recording of the species with up to 2 years difference for 90% of the countries. Temperature differences among countries and the number of exporting countries where the species is present were the most important predictors. Estimates indicate that Aedes albopictus might enter all countries assessed by 2035, earlier in Africa and South America than in Eastern and Northern Europe. However, passive transportation by ground vehicles may accelerate the dispersal of the species, whereas environmental suitability may have seasonal limits, factors that were not integrated in the model. Policy implications: Surveillance and control strategies require timely adjustments to curb the spread of this species, and public health policies must adapt to tackle the potential exposure to vector‐borne diseases. Our study highlights that, in the absence of transnational strategies to contain the dispersal of the species, a large number of new countries will be colonized in the coming years, in different regions of the world, where the implementation of timely preventive measures is paramount.

show abstract

Introductory Chapter: Time Series Analysis

M. Viana,

Oliveira,

Rocha

2024

Time Series Analysis - Recent Advances, New Perspectives and Applications

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Time series, defined as sequentially observed data points over time [1], find applications across diverse domains such as economics and engineering. The statistical analysis of time series is crucial, and Chatfield's taxonomy identifies six main categories: Economic and Financial Time Series, Physical Time Series, Marketing Time Series, Process Control Data, Binary Processes, and Point Processes.To effectively categorize time series, consideration of features like seasonality, trend, and outliers is essential [1]. Seasonality reflects recurring patterns over time intervals, while trend represents a systematic linear or nonlinear component. Outliers are observations distant from others, often indicating anomalies. The categorization and analysis of time series are pivotal for drawing meaningful inferences from the diverse structures encountered in engineering, science, sociology, and economics [2].The objectives of time series analysis encompass description, explanation, prediction, and control. Description involves plotting observations over time to reveal patterns, while explanation explores relationships between variables. Prediction focuses on forecasting future values, and control utilizes time series to enhance control over physical or economic systems.Possible applications span from land use-cover [3,4] and agriculture changes [5,6], tourism [7,8], socioeconomic vulnerability [9], epidemiology [10], and health [11]. This chapter delves into advanced approaches for time series analysis. Time series analysisTime Series Analysis (TSA) involves constructing predictive models that generate a target variable or label based on sequential observations across a defined period, that is, data that is time-dependent. The analysis of time series involves studying the relationships between variables that change over time [12].There are two types of time series: deterministic and stochastic. Deterministic time series can be predicted with certainty based on previous experience, while stochastic time series have random fluctuations [13]. Time series analysis is widely used in various fields such as economics, finance, and health research [12,14]. It helps in identifying patterns, forecasting future values, and understanding the underlying dynamics of the data [14][15][16]. As such, it has applications in various domains and is important for making inferences about the future based on past observations [12,13,15,17,18].

show abstract

Predicting the time of arrival of the Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) to new countries based on trade patterns of tyres and plants

Cited by 3 publications

References 77 publications

First concrete documentation for presence ofAedes (Stegomyia) albopictusin Bolivia: Dispelling previous anecdotes

First concrete documentation for presence ofAedes (Stegomyia) albopictusin Bolivia: Dispelling previous anecdotes

Predicting the time of arrival of the Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) to new countries based on trade patterns of tyres and plants

Introductory Chapter: Time Series Analysis

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About