Predicting the Thermal and Allometric Dependencies of Disease Transmission via the Metabolic Theory of Ecology

Kirk, Dudley; Luijckx, Pepijn; Stanic, Andrijana; Krkošek, Martin

doi:10.1086/702846

Cited by 28 publications

(62 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…• How can trait-based model predictions best be combined with observed dynamics of human cases to infer and predict the role of temperature in disease dynamics? 2013; Moln ar et al 2013;Kirk et al 2018Kirk et al , 2019. Whether these canonical values from metabolic theory apply to the traits of mosquitoes and pathogens that drive vector-borne disease transmission is unknown (Moln ar et al 2013(Moln ar et al , 2017.…”

Section: Foundational Concepts In Thermal Biologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Thermal biology of mosquito‐borne disease

et al. 2019

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Mosquito‐borne diseases cause a major burden of disease worldwide. The vital rates of these ectothermic vectors and parasites respond strongly and nonlinearly to temperature and therefore to climate change. Here, we review how trait‐based approaches can synthesise and mechanistically predict the temperature dependence of transmission across vectors, pathogens, and environments. We present 11 pathogens transmitted by 15 different mosquito species – including globally important diseases like malaria, dengue, and Zika – synthesised from previously published studies. Transmission varied strongly and unimodally with temperature, peaking at 23–29ºC and declining to zero below 9–23ºC and above 32–38ºC. Different traits restricted transmission at low versus high temperatures, and temperature effects on transmission varied by both mosquito and parasite species. Temperate pathogens exhibit broader thermal ranges and cooler thermal minima and optima than tropical pathogens. Among tropical pathogens, malaria and Ross River virus had lower thermal optima (25–26ºC) while dengue and Zika viruses had the highest (29ºC) thermal optima. We expect warming to increase transmission below thermal optima but decrease transmission above optima. Key directions for future work include linking mechanistic models to field transmission, combining temperature effects with control measures, incorporating trait variation and temperature variation, and investigating climate adaptation and migration.

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Section: Foundational Concepts In Thermal Biologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Thermal biology of mosquito‐borne disease

et al. 2019

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“…Advances in mechanistic disease models based on the metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) might help circumvent some limitations of data-intensive, mechanistic SIR models. Several researchers have suggested that thermal dependencies of host and parasite traits (e.g., development and survival) can be described by first principles outlined in MTE [12,29]. If so, then predictions could be generated from well-documented relationships among body size, temperature, and metabolism, potentially reducing the need to quantify relationships between temperature and traits important to parasite transmission and offering null model predictions for data-deficient species [30].…”

Section: Recent Advancesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding how temperature shifts could impact infectious disease

Rohr

Cohen

2020

PLoS Biol

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Climate change is expected to have complex effects on infectious diseases, causing some to increase, others to decrease, and many to shift their distributions. There have been several important advances in understanding the role of climate and climate change on wildlife and human infectious disease dynamics over the past several years. This essay examines 3 major areas of advancement, which include improvements to mechanistic disease models, investigations into the importance of climate variability to disease dynamics, and understanding the consequences of thermal mismatches between host and parasites. Applying the new information derived from these advances to climate–disease models and addressing the pressing knowledge gaps that we identify should improve the capacity to predict how climate change will affect disease risk for both wildlife and humans.

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“…Early exposure significantly increased the likelihood of a female host becoming infected, while sustained exposure had a smaller positive but nonsignificant effect (Figures 1 and 2). These results can be explained by either the predator cues increasing female Daphnia filtration rate (thereby increasing contact rate with the environmentally transmitted parasite) or by increasing the probability of infection after contact (Kirk et al, 2019). If the former is responsible for our observations, we speculate that Daphnia increase foraging rates to acquire resources in the face of predation (potentially for increased reproduction) (Figure 4).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 83%

“…We used separate linear models to test for effects of predator cue treatments on female size and fecundity. We chose these life-history traits because they can potentially influence parasitism in Daphnia via the effects of body size on disease transmission (Hall et al, 2007;Kirk et al, 2019) and within-host parasite intensity (Hall, Simonis, Nisbet, Tessier, & Cáceres, 2009), and linkages between host fecundity and host-parasite outcomes (Hurd, 2001). We used a linear model to predict the number of offspring produced by females across the predator cue treatments (i.e., infected and uninfected females were combined), as well as a linear model with predator cue treatment, infection status, and their interaction as predictors.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Traits such as adult body size, age of reproduction, as well as the number and size of offspring each contribute to the vulnerability of Daphnia to both predation and parasitism (Weber & Declerck, 1997). For example, if Daphnia increase their size in response to predation to avoid consumption (Duffy et al, 2011), they can become more likely to contact parasites due to increased filtration rates associated with larger body sizes (Hall et al, 2007;Kirk, Luijckx, Stanic, & Krkošek, 2019).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Predators can influence the host‐parasite dynamics of their prey via nonconsumptive effects

Zukowski

Kirk

Wadhawan

et al. 2020

Ecology and Evolution

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Ecological communities are partly structured by indirect interactions, where one species can indirectly affect another by altering its interactions with a third species. In the absence of direct predation, nonconsumptive effects of predators on prey have important implications for subsequent community interactions. To better understand these interactions, we used a Daphnia‐parasite‐predator cue system to evaluate if predation risk affects Daphnia responses to a parasite. We investigated the effects of predator cues on two aspects of host–parasite interactions (susceptibility to infection and infection intensity), and whether or not these effects differed between sexes. Our results show that changes in response to predator cues caused an increase in the prevalence and intensity of parasite infections in female predator‐exposed Daphnia. Importantly, the magnitude of infection risk depended on how long Daphnia were exposed to the cues. Additionally, heavily infected Daphnia that were constantly exposed to cues produced relatively more offspring. While males were ~5× less likely to become infected compared to females, we were unable to detect effects of predator cues on male Daphnia–parasite interactions. In sum, predators, prey, and their parasites can form complex subnetworks in food webs, necessitating a nuanced understanding of how nonconsumptive effects may mediate these interactions.

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Predicting the Thermal and Allometric Dependencies of Disease Transmission via the Metabolic Theory of Ecology

Cited by 28 publications

References 64 publications

Thermal biology of mosquito‐borne disease

Thermal biology of mosquito‐borne disease

Understanding how temperature shifts could impact infectious disease

Predators can influence the host‐parasite dynamics of their prey via nonconsumptive effects

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