Recent epidemics of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya have heightened the need to understand the seasonal and geographic range of transmission by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. We use mechanistic transmission models to derive predictions for how the probability and magnitude of transmission for Zika, chikungunya, and dengue change with mean temperature, and we show that these predictions are well matched by human case data. Across all three viruses, models and human case data both show that transmission occurs between 18–34°C with maximal transmission occurring in a range from 26–29°C. Controlling for population size and two socioeconomic factors, temperature-dependent transmission based on our mechanistic model is an important predictor of human transmission occurrence and incidence. Risk maps indicate that tropical and subtropical regions are suitable for extended seasonal or year-round transmission, but transmission in temperate areas is limited to at most three months per year even if vectors are present. Such brief transmission windows limit the likelihood of major epidemics following disease introduction in temperate zones.

Infectious diseases of humans, wildlife, and domesticated species are increasing worldwide, driving the need to understand the mechanisms that shape outbreaks. Simultaneously, human activities are drastically reducing biodiversity. These concurrent patterns have prompted repeated suggestions that biodiversity and disease are linked. For example, the dilution effect hypothesis posits that these patterns are causally related; diverse host communities inhibit the spread of parasites via several mechanisms, such as by regulating populations of susceptible hosts or interfering with parasite transmission. However, the generality of the dilution effect hypothesis remains controversial, especially for zoonotic diseases of humans. Here we provide broad evidence that host diversity inhibits parasite abundance using a metaanalysis of 202 effect sizes on 61 parasite species. The magnitude of these effects was independent of host density, study design, and type and specialization of parasites, indicating that dilution was robust across all ecological contexts examined. However, the magnitude of dilution was more closely related to the frequency, rather than density, of focal host species. Importantly, observational studies overwhelmingly documented dilution effects, and there was also significant evidence for dilution effects of zoonotic parasites of humans. Thus, dilution effects occur commonly in nature, and they may modulate human disease risk. A second analysis identified similar effects of diversity in plant-herbivore systems. Thus, although there can be exceptions, our results indicate that biodiversity generally decreases parasitism and herbivory. Consequently, anthropogenic declines in biodiversity could increase human and wildlife diseases and decrease crop and forest production.H uman activities are dramatically reducing biodiversity (1), and the frequency and severity of infectious disease outbreaks in human, wildlife, and domesticated species are increasing (2-5). These concurrent patterns have prompted suggestions that biodiversity and the spread of diseases may be causally linked. For example, the dilution effect hypothesis proposes that diverse host communities inhibit the abundance of parasites through several mechanisms, such as regulating populations of susceptible hosts or interfering with the transmission process (6-8). Thus, diverse communities may inhibit the proliferation of parasites, thereby promoting the stability of ecological communities and ecosystem services (e.g., nutrient cycling, carbon sequestration, and natural product production) (9).Understanding the generality of these dilution effects is crucial for projections of future disease outbreaks, which can threaten human health, species conservation, and ecosystem services (3, 9). If biodiversity generally inhibits parasites, then human-driven biodiversity loss could exacerbate disease risk for humans and wildlife. Biodiversity conservation might then limit the abundance of many parasites of wildlife and humans (10-12). However, if parasites a...

Phenology, or the timing of seasonal activities, is shifting with climate change, resulting in disruptions to the timing of migration and breeding and in emerging asynchronies between interacting species 1-5 . Recent syntheses have concluded that trophic level 1 , latitude 6 , and how phenological responses are measured 7 are key to determining the strength of phenological responses to climate change. However, despite these insights, researchers still lack a comprehensive framework that can predict responses to climate change globally and across diverse taxa. For example, little is known about whether phenological shifts are driven by different climatic factors across regions or which ecologically important species characteristics (e.g., body size) predict the strength of phenological responses. Here, we address these questions by synthesizing hundreds of published time series of animal phenology from across the planet. We find that temperature drives phenological responses at mid-latitudes, but precipitation is more important at lower latitudes, likely because these climate factors often drive seasonality in each of these regions. Body size is also negatively associated with the strength of phenological shift, suggesting emerging asynchronies between interacting species that differ . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.

Parasites typically have broader thermal limits than hosts, so large performance gaps between pathogens and their cold- and warm-adapted hosts should occur at relatively warm and cold temperatures, respectively. We tested this thermal mismatch hypothesis by quantifying the temperature-dependent susceptibility of cold- and warm-adapted amphibian species to the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) using laboratory experiments and field prevalence estimates from 15 410 individuals in 598 populations. In both the laboratory and field, we found that the greatest susceptibility of cold- and warm-adapted hosts occurred at relatively warm and cool temperatures, respectively, providing support for the thermal mismatch hypothesis. Our results suggest that as climate change shifts hosts away from their optimal temperatures, the probability of increased host susceptibility to infectious disease might increase, but the effect will depend on the host species and the direction of the climate shift. Our findings help explain the tremendous variation in species responses to Bd across climates and spatial, temporal and species-level variation in disease outbreaks associated with extreme weather events that are becoming more common with climate change.

Thermal acclimation capacity, the degree to which organisms can alter their optimal performance temperature and critical thermal limits with changing temperatures, reflects their ability to respond to temperature variability and thus might be important for coping with global climate change. Here, we combine simulation modelling with analysis of published data on thermal acclimation and breadth (range of temperatures over which organisms perform well) to develop a framework for predicting thermal plasticity across taxa, latitudes, body sizes, traits, habitats and methodological factors. Our synthesis includes > 2000 measures of acclimation capacities from > 500 species of ectotherms spanning fungi, invertebrates, and vertebrates from freshwater, marine and terrestrial habitats. We find that body size, latitude, and methodological factors often interact to shape acclimation responses and that acclimation rate scales negatively with body size, contributing to a general negative association between body size and thermal breadth across species. Additionally, we reveal that acclimation capacity increases with body size, increases with latitude (to mid-latitudinal zones) and seasonality for smaller but not larger organisms, decreases with thermal safety margin (upper lethal temperature minus maximum environmental temperatures), and is regularly underestimated because of experimental artefacts. We then demonstrate that our framework can predict the contribution of acclimation plasticity to the IUCN threat status of amphibians globally, suggesting that phenotypic plasticity is already buffering some species from climate change.