Predicting the Socio‐Technical Future (and Other Myths)

Abstract

A snooker ball model implies that simple, linear and predictable social change follows from the introduction of new technologies. Unfortunately technology does not have and has never had simple linear predictable social impacts. In this chapter we show that in most measurable ways, the pervasiveness of modern information and communication technologies has had little discernable 'impact' on most human behaviours of sociological significance. Historians of technology remind us that human society co-evolves with the technology it invents and that the eventual social and economic uses of a technology often turn out to be far removed from those originally envisioned. Rather than using the snooker ball model to attempt to predict future ICT usage and revenue models that are inevitably wrong, we suggest that truly participatory, grounded innovation, open systems and adaptive revenue models can lead us to a more effective, flexible and responsive innovation process. IntroductionMuch human conduct is designed to avoid hazards and to promote beneficial returns. Indeed, this is the premise of the notion of 'risk societies' (Beck and BeckGernsheim, 2002) where individuals rely on past and current information to determine their future, predominantly risk aversive, behaviours. This idiom of human affairs embraces most areas of life. Meteorologists can (sometimes) help us avoid bad weather; seismologists can warn of areas of pending earthquakes and volcanic eruptions; economists inform business and governments of forthcoming growth trends and market stability; political scientists tell us which party is most likely to form the next government and climatologists warn of the dire consequences of global warming. Of course the central tenet of forecasting and prediction is that by studying past information we can -with some 'reasonable' degree of accuracy -project what is likely to happen in the future. However, there is no such thing as an exact science, and the confidence with which we can predict the future depends on the phenomena in question, the information available and the granularity of prediction that we require.This chapter concerns itself with predicting the future 'social implications' of Information Communication Technologies (ICTs). It is sobering to remember that the telephone was not originally conceived as a means of human to human (or human to machine) communication. This form of usage evolved over time often in direct contradiction to notions of 'proper use' (Pool, 1983, Fischer, 1992. Despite this, it became the driving revenue stream for all telecommunications companies. Indeed, recent empirical studies of attempts at futurology have suggest that, amongst other problems, major reasons for failure have been an over-emphasis on technology determinism, a poor understanding of social trends and change, and finally, the overreliance on a linear progression model of change (Geels and Smit, 2000, Bouwman andVan Der Dun, 2007)

Developing Novel Approaches to Tracking Domestic Water Demand Under Uncertainty—A Reflection on the “Up Scaling” of Social Science Approaches in the United Kingdom

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Long-Term Projections of Domestic Water Demand: A Case Study of London and the Thames Valley

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Technological Trends in Adult Education

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