Predicting the potential distribution of Lantana camara L. under RCP scenarios using ISI-MIP models

Abstract

Projections of anthropogenically-induced global climate change and its impacts on potential distributions of invasive species are crucial for implementing effective conservation and management strategies. Lantana camara L., a popular ornamental plant native to tropical America, has become naturalized in some 50 countries and is considered one of the world's worst weeds. To increase our understanding of its potential extent of spread and examine the responses of global geographic distribution, predictive models incorporating global distribution data of L. camara were generated. These models were used to identify areas of environmental suitability and project the effects of future climate change based on an ensemble of the four global climate models (GCMs) within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparis on Project (ISI-MIP). Each model was run under the four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) using the Maximum entropy (Maxent) approach. Future model predictions through 2050 indicated an overall expansion of L. camara, despite future suitability varying considerably among continents. Under the four RCP scenarios, the range of L. camara expanded further inland in many regions (e.g. Africa, Australia), especially under the RCP85 emission scenario. The global distribution of L. camara, though restricted within geographical regions of similar latitude as at present (35°N~35°S), was projected to expand Climatic Change

Niche change analysis as a tool to inform management of two invasive species in Eastern Africa

“…This, too, is in line with findings reported by Qin et al. (). Our results further suggest that Zambia is at a high risk of being affected by L. camara in the future, although, again, we did not consider any occurrence data from Zambia and hence this finding might be less reliable.…”

“…This corresponds to findings from a global study by Qin et al. () in which they predicted an expansion of L. camara further inland in Eastern Africa, particularly under the RCP85 emission scenario. The global model suggests that virtually all of Ethiopia and Kenya and most of Tanzania has suitable climates for L. camara , which likewise corresponds to the findings of Qin et al.…”

“…The global model suggests that virtually all of Ethiopia and Kenya and most of Tanzania has suitable climates for L. camara , which likewise corresponds to the findings of Qin et al. (). However, this is not confirmed by the regional model, which we consider to be more accurate, as it uses local occurrence points and additional variables reflecting the preferred environmental conditions of the two species.…”

Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of the ectomycorrhizal mushroom Tricholoma matsutake under multiple climate change scenarios

“…Statistical species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to forecast the potential changes in species distributions under different climate change scenarios1316242526. By building a correlation between species existence and climatic and geographical features, SDMs can predict the current and future distributions of target species24.…”

Projecting the current and future potential global distribution ofHyphantria cunea(Lepidoptera: Arctiidae) using CLIMEX

“…Many species distribution models are used to project the potential distribution of a particular species, including ANUCLIM/BIOCLIM, CLIMATE, CLIMEX, DOMAIN, GARP, HABITAT, and MaxEnt . Owing to the development and improvement of climate simulations, more and more scholars have focused on the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions . CLIMEX model is widely used to project the potential distributions of species under climate change, such as pests ( Cerotoma trifurcata and Eurygaster integriceps ), pathogens ( Phytophthora cinnamomi ), and weeds ( Lantana camara ) .…”