Predicting the phenology of codling moth, Cydia pomonella, for sustainable pest management in Swiss apple orchards

Abstract

The effects of temperature on post‐diapause development, female lifespan, and reproduction of Cydia pomonella L. (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) were studied under controlled conditions to determine the respective parameters for a temperature‐driven phenology model. Lower thermal thresholds of 10.0 and 9.7 °C and thermal constants of 417.2 and 427.7 degree days were established for post‐diapause development of females and males, respectively. Female lifespan was found to be 202.6 degree days on average, with a lower thermal threshold of 11.2 °C. Total fecundity was highest at 27.7 °C with an average of 241.9 eggs per female. Literature data were used to quantify the lower thermal thresholds and the thermal constants for eggs, larvae, and pupae. For validation, the model was run with weather data from 13 consecutive years and the output was compared with pheromone trap catches from 39 to 63 different orchards, depending on the year. The model proved to be a reliable and useful tool to forecast codling moth phenology under Swiss conditions not only for a whole growing season but also during several years with very variable weather conditions. Hence, it can be used to support apple growers in pest management decisions on the one hand and to predict changes in codling moth phenology with respect to climate change on the other.

Comparison of New Kairomone-Based Lures for Cydia pomonella (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in Italy and USA

“…Reliable surveillance of codling moth flight provides useful information for the timely management of pest population and limit crop losses. However, only monitoring male moths requires a robust correlation with key life history events, i.e., female egg laying and larval eclosion [ 56 ]. Thus, monitoring female populations should be a more accurate approach to predict key events [ 57 , 58 ].…”

Prediction of seasonal population dynamics of Grapholita molesta (Busck) and Adoxophyes orana (Fischer von Röslerstamm) in peach orchards using sex pheromone trap and degree-days and its implications in pest management

“…The identical flight timing allows us to fit the overall data of different cultivars using a single phenology model. The precise prediction of flight timing coordinating with the degree-days technique (e.g., Rice et al, 1984;Tobin et al, 2003;Pehlevan and Kovanci, 2017;Rowley et al, 2017;Graf et al, 2018;Damos et al, 2022) may provide critical information to optimize the schedule of pheromone trap or pesticide applications. For example, the flight peak of overwintered G. molesta or A. orana was usually lower than the consequent peaks (i.e., the 2nd and 3rd peaks) (Figures 2, 3; Tables 1, 2), which provides opportunities to prevent the outbreaks of field populations in the later seasons when the overwintered population size is low in early spring (Tshernyshei, 1995;Parry et al, 2019).…”

Incorporating diapause to predict the interannual dynamics of an important agricultural pest

“…We created a physiological stage-structured model that incorporated the C. pomonella egg stage, five nondiapausing instar stadia (first-to-fifth), the diapausing fifth instar, pupae, reproductive adults, and senescent adults (Figure 1). We incorporated stage-specific vital rates that are dependent on ambient temperature as determined from previously published empirical work (Aghdam et al, 2009(Aghdam et al, , 2011Blomefield & Giliomee, 2009;Chen et al, 2019;Chidawanyika & Terblanche, 2011;Glenn, 1922;Graf et al, 2018;Howell & Neven, 2000;Howell & Schmidt, 2002;Khani & Moharramipour, 2010;Moffitt & Burditt, 1989;Neven, 2013;Setyobudi, 1989;Williams & McDonald, 1982;Yokoyama et al, 1987). The full model and its derivation are provided in Text S1, Figures S1-S3, and Table S1.…”