Incorporating diapause to predict the interannual dynamics of an important agricultural pest

Abstract

We develop a new population-scale model incorporating diapause induction and termination that allows multi-year predictions of pest dynamics. In addition to predicting phenology and voltinism, the model also allows us to study the degree of overlapping among the life-stages across time; a quantity not generally predicted by previous models yet a key determinant of how frequently management must be done to maintain control. The model is a physiological, stage-structured population model that includes temperature-dependent vital rates, diapause processes, and plasticity in development. The model is statistically fitted with a 33-year long weekly term time series of Cydia pomonella adults captured in pheromone-baited traps from a research orchard in southern Pennsylvania. The multiannual model allows investigation of both within season control strategies, as well as the likely consequences of climate change for this important agricultural pest. The model predicts that warming temperatures will cause earlier spring emergence, additional generations, and increased overall abundance. Most importantly, by calculating the circular variance, we find that warmer temperatures are associated with an increase in overlap among life-stages especially at the beginning of the growing season. Our findings highlight the importance of modeling diapause to fully understand C. pomonella lifecycle and to better inform management for effectively controlling this pest in a warmer future.

Study of the overwintering ecology of the hazelnut pest, Palomena prasina (L.) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in a perspective of Integrated Pest Management

“…It is also noteworthy that both cone and Circle traps succeeded in collecting post‐overwintering individuals, and cone traps proved to be particularly efficient. As such, cone traps could be used to establish a Biofix, either for the first emerging individuals or for the time they consistently emerge from diapause (Pak et al., 2022). This could then be used to construct degree‐day models to predict the future presence of GBS at particular developmental stages in the crop, as suggested for H. halys (Bergh et al., 2017).…”

Influence of abiotic factors on diapause termination and temperature requirements for postdiapause development in the European red mite, Panonychus ulmi (Acari: Tetranychidae)

“…2011). To accurately predict population dynamics, modelling could bene t by adding additional parameters that take into account diapause as it was previously developed for the codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.) (Pak et al 2022). Additionally, modelling parameters can be customized for each speci c region of the world.…”

Population Ecology 2023 Editorial

“…The third image shows the stage-structured physiological model of Cydia pomonella. Pak et al (2022) showed that seasonal temperatures drive the survivorship, fecundity, and development rate in individuals. The authors also include diapause induction and termination, which are driven by photoperiod and temperatures, respectively.…”

“…The authors also include diapause induction and termination, which are driven by photoperiod and temperatures, respectively. Using empirically derived laboratory data as well as a long-term time series of Cydia pomonella in the field, Pak et al (2022) fit their model and simulate the dynamics over 33 years. Because temperature ultimately drives the dynamics in Cydia pomonella, the authors simulate the model under higher temperatures to show how the dynamics, specifically its phenology, can change.…”