Predicting the national football league potential of college quarterbacks

Abstract

We use college football data and, in some cases, ESPN scout grades to estimate (1) attributes that are likely to result in a college quarterback being selected by a National Football League (NFL) team, and (2) the performance of rookie quarterbacks in the NFL. We find that both college passing and rushing ability are significantly correlated with NFL selection, with strong passing ability the most important trait for making the NFL. Among quarterbacks selected for the NFL, college rushing ability is significantly correlated with NFL performance, but college passing ability is not. College rushing ability is also a significant determinant of NFL performance when scout grades are included as an explanatory variable. We conclude that rushing prowess is the key determinant of the NFL success of quarterbacks with sufficient passing skills to warrant NFL selection. Our findings also indicate that scouts systematically undervalue rushing ability when assessing the NFL potential of college quarterbacks.

New contracts and dismissal threats from highly drafted rookies: What motivates NFL quarterbacks?

“…Nearly all previous studies that examined NFL quarterback performance attempted to project performance using only variables known to teams before quarterbacks were drafted (e.g., see Berri & Simmons, 2011; Cook et al, 2020; Craig & Winchester, 2021; Hendricks et al, 2003; Kitchens, 2015; Kuzmits & Adams, 2008; Mirabile, 2005; Pitts & Evans, 2018; Rosen & Olbrecht, 2020; and Wolfson et al, 2011). Thus, these studies were primarily interested in how NFL teams could identify talented players in the draft.…”

The determinants of Black quarterback pay in the National Football League

“…Yet rushing yards appears to be an important indicator of quarterback performance. In a study of college football, Craig and Winchester (2021) find, without considering race, that for those college quarterbacks who were selected for the NFL, college rushing ability is significantly correlated with future NFL performance while college passing ability is not. We would therefore expect NFL rushing capability to be rewarded in salary.…”