Predicting the changes in the structure of food demand in China

Abstract

A complete demand system is estimated separately for urban and rural residents using a two-stage almost ideal demand system-quadratic almost ideal demand system model and pooled provincial and time-series data from 2000 to 2012. The estimated demand elasticities with respect to income and demographic variables are then used to predict the changes in the structure of food demand in China for the year 2030. Results of this study suggest that, as per capita incomes grow further while both urbanization and population aging continue their upward trends, the shares of expenditures on foods away from home are expected to rise while the shares of spending on foods at home would decline, and that at-home food budget shares of grains are expected to continue decreasing whereas athome food budget shares of foods with animal origins and fruits would be on the rise. Thus, food security in China has been transformed into feed grain security. K E Y W O R D S demographic change, food demand in China, income growth, urbanization J E L C O D E S C33, D12, Q18

Effects of local and national advertising across brands: the case of yogurt in China

“…To the best of our knowledge, no study has specifically examined yogurt demand at the brand level in China, and we compare our results with those studies on dairy demand. One recent meta-analysis shows that own-price elasticities for dairy products range from −0.218 to −1.620 in China (Chen et al 2016), and the latest study finds that the own-price elasticity for dairy products is −1.145 for Chinese urban consumers (Zheng et al 2019). Although our estimation of own-price elasticities of yogurt is larger, it is consistent with previous findings as fluid milk included in dairy products tends to have much smaller price elasticity (Cheng et al 2015).…”

Importance and share of agribusiness in the Chinese economy (2000–2014)

“…Of importance too, is the increase in the consumption of food away from home (FAFH) with a simultaneous decline in the consumption of food at home (FAH) (Ma et al., 2006; Bai et al., 2016). This trend is forecast to continue in the years to come (Zheng et al., 2018). This is likely to result in a constant (if not increasing) share of the GDP of aggregate III in the economy.…”

Demand for animal‐derived food in selected Asian countries: A system‐wide analysis

“…The demand for meat has been estimated by many studies utilizing various data and estimation methods (for some recent seminal works, see Karagiannis, Katranidis, & Velentzas, 2000;Mazzocchi, Monache, & Lobb, 2006;Selvanathan, Selvanathan, Albalawi, & Hossain, 2016;Tonsor, Mintert, & Schroeder, 2010;Wong, Selvanathan, & Selvanathan, 2015;Zheng et al, 2018). Further, Gallet (2010aGallet ( , 2010b has performed a meta-analysis of the price and income elasticity of meat and fish reported by previous studies.…”

“…Further, Gale and Huang (2007), Hovhannisyan and Gould (2014), Huang and David (1993), Zheng and Henneberry (2010), Zheng and Henneberry (2011), Zheng and Henneberry (2012), and Zheng et al (2018) have also analyzed the demand for food in China including the demand for animal-derived food. Table 1 presents the income and own-price elasticities reported in the above reviewed studies.…”