Predicting the 1‐AU arrival times of coronal mass ejections

Gopalswamy, Ν.; Lara, A.; Yashiro, S.; Kaiser, M. L.; Howard, R. A.

doi:10.1029/2001ja000177

Cited by 415 publications

(592 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Consequently, CMEs faster then solar wind decelerate, whereas slower ones are accelerated, both eventually being adjusted to the solar wind speed (e.g., Lindsay et al 1999, Gopalswamy et al 2001, Manoharan 2006, Vršnak &Žic 2007. In this paper the influence of the aerodynamic drag on the CME kinematics in the high corona and interplanetary space is analyzed, and implications for the space weather forecasting are discussed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of aerodynamic drag in dynamics of coronal mass ejections

et al. 2008

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Abstract. Dynamics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is strongly affected by the interaction of the erupting structure with the ambient magnetoplasma: eruptions that are faster than solar wind transfer the momentum and energy to the wind and generally decelerate, whereas slower ones gain the momentum and accelerate. Such a behavior can be expressed in terms of "aerodynamic" drag. We employ a large sample of CMEs to analyze the relationship between kinematics of CMEs and drag-related parameters, such as ambient solar wind speed and the CME mass. Employing coronagraphic observations it is demonstrated that massive CMEs are less affected by the aerodynamic drag than light ones. On the other hand, in situ measurements are used to inspect the role of the solar wind speed and it is shown that the Sun-Earth transit time is more closely related to the wind speed than to take-off speed of CMEs. These findings are interpreted by analyzing solutions of a simple equation of motion based on the standard form for the drag acceleration. The results show that most of the acceleration/deceleration of CMEs on their way through the interplanetary space takes place close to the Sun, where the ambient plasma density is still high. Implications for the space weather forecasting of CME arrival-times are discussed.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of aerodynamic drag in dynamics of coronal mass ejections

et al. 2008

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“…The speed distributions for accelerating and decelerating events are nearly identical and to a worthy estimation they can be fitted with a single log-normal distribution [69]. However, to compute the acceleration is not an easy way because it depends on the projection effects and acceleration distance [70].…”

Section: Coronal Mass Ejections (Cmes)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Probability of Solar Flares Turn out to Form a Coronal Mass Ejections Events due to the Characterization of Solar Radio Burst Type II and III

Hamidi

2014

ILCPA

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The solar flare and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are well known as one of the most massive eruptions which potentially create major disturbances in the interplanetary medium and initiate severe magnetic storms when they collide with the Earth's magnetosphere. However, how far the solar flare can contribute to the formation of the CMEs is still not easy to be understood. These phenomena are associated with II and III burst it also divided by sub-type of burst depending on the physical characteristics and different mechanisms. In this work, we used a Compound Astronomical Low-cost Low-frequency Instrument for Spectroscopy in Transportable Observatories (CALLISTO) system. The aim of the present study is to reveal dynamical properties of solar burst type II and III due to several mechanisms. Most of the cases of both solar radio bursts can be found in the range less that 400 MHz. Based on solar flare monitoring within 24 hours, the CMEs that has the potential to explode will dominantly be a class of M1 solar flare. Overall, the tendencies of SRBT III burst form the solar radio burst type III at 187 MHz to 449 MHz. Based on solar observations, it is evident that the explosive, short time-scale energy release during flares and the long term, gradual energy release expressed by CMEs can be reasonably understood only if both processes are taken as common and probably not independent signatures of a destabilization of pre-existing coronal magnetic field structures. The configurations of several active regions can be sourced regions of CMEs formation. The study of the formation, acceleration and propagation of CMEs requires advanced and powerful observational tools in different spectral ranges as many 'stages' as possible between the photosphere of the Sun and magnetosphere of the Sun and magnetosphere of the Earth. In conclusion, this range is a current regime of solar radio bursts during CMEs events.

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“…We call R c a "deceleration cessation distance," which was originally discussed in the empirical models (Gopalswamy et al 2001). Solving Equation ( …”

Section: The Fundamental Condition For Extremely Fastmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The ECA model assumes "effective" constant deceleration (or acceleration) of CMEs in interplanetary space. Gopalswamy et al (2001) introduced a deceleration cessation distance of 0.76 au, after which ICMEs propagate with a constant speed in order to improve the predictability of the ECA model. The empirical shock arrival model that Gopalswamy et al (2005) developed, and based on the combination of ECA model prediction and piston-driven shock propagation, predicts a 1 au arrival time for a leading shock front.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sheath-accumulating Propagation of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection

Takahashi

Shibata

2017

ApJL

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Fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are the drivers of strong space weather storms such as solar energetic particle events and geomagnetic storms. The connection between the space-weather-impacting solar wind disturbances associated with fast ICMEs at Earth and the characteristics of causative energetic CMEs observed near the Sun is a key question in the study of space weather storms, as well as in the development of practical space weather prediction. Such shock-driving fast ICMEs usually expand at supersonic speeds during the propagation, resulting in the continuous accumulation of shocked sheath plasma ahead. In this paper, we propose a "sheath-accumulating propagation" (SAP) model that describes the coevolution of the interplanetary sheath and decelerating ICME ejecta by taking into account the process of upstream solar wind plasma accumulation within the sheath region. Based on the SAP model, we discuss (1) ICME deceleration characteristics; (2) the fundamental condition for fast ICMEs at Earth; (3) the thickness of interplanetary sheaths; (4) arrival time prediction; and (5) the super-intense geomagnetic storms associated with huge solar flares. We quantitatively show that not only the speed but also the mass of the CME are crucial for discussing the above five points. The similarities and differences between the SAP model, the drag-based model, and the"snow-plow" model proposed by Tappin are also discussed.

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Predicting the 1‐AU arrival times of coronal mass ejections

Cited by 415 publications

References 24 publications

The role of aerodynamic drag in dynamics of coronal mass ejections

The role of aerodynamic drag in dynamics of coronal mass ejections

Probability of Solar Flares Turn out to Form a Coronal Mass Ejections Events due to the Characterization of Solar Radio Burst Type II and III

Sheath-accumulating Propagation of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection

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