No abstract

The drag-based model (DBM) for heliospheric propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a widely used analytical model which can predict CME arrival time and speed at a given heliospheric location. It is based on the assumption that the propagation of CMEs in interplanetary space is solely under the influence of magnetohydrodynamical drag, where CME propagation is determined based on CME initial properties as well as the properties of the ambient solar wind. We present an upgraded version, covering ensemble modelling to produce a distribution of possible ICME arrival times and speeds, the drag-based ensemble model (DBEM). Multiple runs using uncertainty ranges for the input values can be performed in almost real-time, within a few minutes. This allows us to define the most likely ICME arrival times and speeds, quantify prediction uncertainties and determine forecast confidence. The performance of the DBEM is evaluated and compared to that of ensemble WSA-ENLIL+Cone model (ENLIL) using the same sample of events. It is found that the mean error is M E = −9.7 hours, mean absolute error M AE = 14.3 hours and root mean square error RM SE = 16.7 hours, which is somewhat higher than, but comparable to ENLIL errors (M E = −6.1 hours, M AE = 12.8 hours and RM SE = 14.4 hours). Overall, DBEM and ENLIL show a similar performance. Furthermore, we find that in both models fast CMEs are predicted to arrive earlier than observed, most probably owing to the physical limitations of models, but possibly also related to an overestimation of the CME initial speed for fast CMEs.

[1] Currently a cosmic ray cloud connection (CRC) hypothesis is subject of an intense controversial debate. It postulates that galactic cosmic rays (GCR) intruding the Earth's atmosphere influence cloud cover. If correct it would have important consequences for our understanding of climate driving processes. Here we report on an alternative and stringent test of the CRC-hypothesis by searching for a possible influence of sudden GCR decreases (so-called Forbush decreases) on clouds. We find no response of global cloud cover to Forbush decreases at any altitude and latitude.

The composite (superposed epoch) analysis technique has been frequently employed to examine a hypothesized link between solar activity and the Earth's atmosphere, often through an investigation of Forbush decrease (Fd) events (sudden high-magnitude decreases in the flux cosmic rays impinging on the upper-atmosphere lasting up to several days). This technique is useful for isolating low-amplitude signals within data where background variability would otherwise obscure detection. The application of composite analyses to investigate the possible impacts of Fd events involves a statistical examination of time-dependent atmospheric responses to Fds often from aerosol and/or cloud datasets. Despite the publication of numerous results within this field, clear conclusions have yet to be drawn and much ambiguity and disagreement still remain. In this paper, we argue that the conflicting findings of composite studies within this field relate to methodological differences in the manner in which the composites have been constructed and analyzed. Working from an example, we show how a composite may be objectively constructed to maximize signal detection, robustly identify statistical significance, and quantify the lower-limit uncertainty related to hypothesis testing. Additionally, we also demonstrate how a seemingly significant false positive may be obtained from non-significant data by minor alterations to methodological approaches.

Aims. We perform a systematic statistical study of the relationship between characteristics of solar wind disturbances, caused by interplanetary coronal mass ejections and corotating interaction regions, and properties of Forbush decreases (FDs). Since the mechanism of FDs is still being researched, this analysis should provide a firm empirical basis for physical interpretations of the FD phenomenon. Methods. The analysis is based on the ground-based neutron monitor data and the solar wind data recorded by the Advanced Composition Explorer, where the disturbances were identified as increases in proton speed, magnetic field, and magnetic field fluctuations. We focus on the relative timing of FDs, as well as on the correlations between various FD and solar wind parameters, paying special attention to the statistical significance of the results. Results. It was found that the onset, the minimum, and the end of FDs are delayed after the onset, the maximum, and the end of the magnetic field enhancement. The t-test shows that at the 95% significance level the average lags have to be longer than 3, 7, and 26 h, respectively. FD magnitude (|FD|) is correlated with the magnetic field strength (B), magnetic field fluctuations (δB), and speed (v), as well as with combined parameters, Bt B , Bv, vt B , and Bvt B , where t B is the duration of the magnetic field disturbance. In the |FD|(B) dependence, a "branching" effect was observed, i.e., two different trends exist. The analysis of the FD duration and recovery period reveals a correlation with the duration of the magnetic field enhancement. The strongest correlations are obtained for the dependence on combined solar wind parameters of the product of the FD duration and magnitude, implying that combined parameters are in fact true variables themselves, rather than just a product of variables. Conclusions. From the time lags we estimate that "the penetration depth" in the disturbance, at which FD onset becomes recognizable, is on the order of 100 Larmor radii and is comparable to a typical shock-sheath dimension. The results for the FD time profile indicate "shadow effect" of the solar wind disturbance before and after it passes the observer. The importance of reduced parallel diffusion during the passage of the disturbance is discussed, along with the influence of terrestrial effects on the observed "branching effect".

We developed a new numerical code that is able to perform 2.5D simulations of a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) wave propagation in the corona, and its interaction with a low density region, such as a coronal hole (CH). We show that the impact of the wave on the CH leads to different effects, such as reflection and transmission of the incoming wave, stationary features at the CH boundary, or formation of a density depletion. We present a comprehensive analysis of the morphology and kinematics of primary and secondary waves, i.e. we describe in detail the temporal evolution of density, magnetic field, plasma flow velocity, phase speed and position of the wave amplitude. Effects like reflection, refraction and transmisson of the wave strongly support the theory that large scale disturbances in the corona are fast MHD waves and build the major distinction to the competing pseudo-wave theory. The formation of stationary bright fronts was one of the main reasons for the development of pseudo-waves. Here we show that stationary bright fronts can be produced by the interactions of an MHD wave with a CH. We find secondary waves that are traversing through the CH and we show that one part of these traversing waves leaves the CH again, while another part is being reflected at the CH boundary inside the CH. We observe a density depletion that is moving in the opposite direction of the primary wave propagation. We show that the primary wave pushes the CH boundary to the right, caused by the wave front exerting dynamic pressure on the CH.

Despite over 35 years of constant satellite-based measurements of cloud, reliable evidence of a long-hypothesized link between changes in solar activity and Earth's cloud cover remains elusive. This work examines evidence of a cosmic ray cloud link from a range of sources, including satellite-based cloud measurements and long-term ground-based climatological measurements. The satellite-based studies can be divided into two categories: (1) monthly to decadal timescale analysis and (2) daily timescale epochsuperpositional (composite) analysis. The latter analyses frequently focus on sudden high-magnitude reductions in the cosmic ray flux known as Forbush Decrease events. At present, two long-term independent global satellite cloud datasets are available (ISCCP and MODIS). Although the differences between them are considerable, neither shows evidence of a solar-cloud link at either long or short timescales. Furthermore, reports of observed correlations between solar activity and cloud over the 1983-1995 period are attributed to the chance agreement between solar changes and artificially induced cloud trends. It is possible that the satellite cloud datasets and analysis methods may simply be too insensitive to detect a small solar signal. Evidence from ground-based studies suggests that some weak but statistically significant cosmic ray-cloud relationships may exist at regional scales, involving mechanisms related to the global electric circuit. However, a poor understanding of these mechanisms and their effects on cloud makes the net impacts of such links uncertain. Regardless of this, it is clear that there is no robust evidence of a widespread link between the cosmic ray flux and clouds. This is anOpen Access article distributed under the terms of Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License J. Space Weather Space Clim. 2 (2012) A18 A18-p2 B.A. Laken et al.: Cosmic ray climate link and cloud observations A18-p3 J. Space Weather Space Clim. 2 (2012) A18

Context. Solar wind disturbances such as interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs) cause short-term cosmic ray depressions, generally denoted as Forbush decreases. Aims. We conduct a systematic statistical study of various aspects of Forbush decreases. The analysis provides empirical background for physical interpretations of short-term cosmic ray modulations. Methods. Firstly, we analyzed the effects of different types of solar wind disturbances, and secondly, we focused on the phenomenon of over-recovery (the return of the cosmic ray count to a value higher than the pre-decrease level). The analysis is based on groundbased neutron monitor data and the solar wind data recorded by the Advanced Composition Explorer. The correlations between various cosmic ray depressions and solar wind parameters as well as their statistical significance are analyzed in detail. In addition, we performed a normalized superposed epoch analysis for depressions and magnetic field enhancements. Results. The analysis revealed differences in the relationship between different solar wind disturbances and cosmic ray depression parameters. The amplitude of the depression for ICMEs was found to correlate well with the amplitudes of magnetic field strength and fluctuations, whereas for CIRs we found only the correlation between the amplitude of the depression and the solar wind disturbance dimension proxy vt B . Similar behavior was found for shock and no-shock events, respectively. The CIR/ICME composites show a specific behavior that is a mixture of both ICMEs and CIRs. For all analyzed categories we found that the duration of the depression correlates with the duration of the solar wind disturbance. The analysis of the over-recovery showed that there is no straightforward relationship to either "branching-effect" or geomagnetic effects, therefore we propose a scenario where the "branching-effect" is caused by several factors and is only indirectly related to the over-recovery.