Predicting STEM Degree Outcomes Based on Eighth Grade Data and Standard Test Scores

Abstract

Background Early identification of students who are potential candidates for achieving a degree in a Science, Technology, Engineering, or Mathematics (STEM) major would enable educators to offer programs designed to better enhance student interests and capabilities in those areas. Purpose (Hypothesis) This study uses an integrated model leveraging the strengths of multiple statistical techniques to analyze the educational process from pre‐high school through college and predict which students will achieve a STEM education. Design/Method The probability of earning a STEM degree is modeled using variables available as of the eighth grade as well as standardized test scores from high school. These include demographic, attitudinal, experiential, and academic performance measures derived from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88) dataset. The integrated model combines logistic regression, survival analysis, and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis to predict whether an individual is likely to obtain a STEM degree. Results Predicted results of the integrated model were compared to actual outcomes and those of a separate logistic regression model. The modeling process identified a set of significant predictive variables and achieved very good predictive accuracy. The integrated model and logistic regression model performed with comparable precision. Conclusions The modeling process was adept at identifying STEM students and a large pool of other degree students that might have been capable of pursuing a STEM degree. The results suggest that it is quite feasible to identify good STEM candidates for a pro‐STEM intervention to engage their interest in STEM and support stronger quantitative skill development.

Determining the Effects of Pre-College STEM Contexts on STEM Major Choices in 4-year Postsecondary Institutions Using Multilevel Structural Equation Modeling

“…Aligned with the math disciplines, student achievement in science is also considered a strong predictor for student selection of STEM majors in post-secondary institutions (e.g., Trusty, 2002;Nicholls, Wolfe, Besterfield-Sacre, & Shuman, 2010;Maltese & Tai, 2011). Similar to the effects of taking advanced math courses, students who take advanced science courses are more likely to enter STEM disciplines in post-secondary institutions (e.g., Muller, Stage, & Kinzie, 2001;Trusty, 2002;Anderson & Kim, 2006;Sahin, Morgan, & Erdogan, 2012).…”

A Qualitative Study of Motivation in Alaska Native Science & Engineering Program (ANSEP) Pre-college Students

“…Research has shown that students who complete advanced mathematics and science courses while in high school are more academically prepared to pursue and succeed in STEM degree programs and professions 2,[7][8][9][10][11][12] . There is limited research on what motivates precollege students to become more academically prepared before they graduate from high school.…”

How to Develop Alaska Native STEM Students in Middle School and High School

“…According to the National Action Council for Minorities in Engineering, 96% of underrepresented minorities that graduate from high school are unprepared and not ready to study engineering by not taking pre-calculus, chemistry, and physics prior to arriving at the university 2 . In Alaska, Alaska Natives have the worst performance as compared to all other ethnicities in mathematics and science 3 and these courses are crucial to prepare and retain students in college for STEM degree programs 2,[4][5][6][7][8][9] . These statistics are alarming; however, there is one longitudinal program, called Alaska Native Science & Engineering Program (ANSEP) that defies these rates and is a model of excellence [10][11][12][13] .…”

“…Many studies have shown that students who complete advanced mathematics and science courses while in high school are more academically prepared to pursue and succeed in STEM degree programs and professions 2,[4][5][6][7][8][9] . Adelman 4 explains that students at a minimum need to complete about four credits in mathematics in high school to successfully pursue a bachelor's degree.…”

“…Motivation was used as the theoretical lens for this study because it is linked to student success and persistence in STEM degrees 1,[30][31][32][33][34][35][36] . Students' self-efficacy in mathematics and science is also related to student success and persistence in STEM degrees 7,13,32,34,[37][38][39] .…”