Predicting species distribution and abundance responses to climate change: why it is essential to include biotic interactions across trophic levels

Abstract

Current predictions on species responses to climate change strongly rely on projecting altered environmental conditions on species distributions. However, it is increasingly acknowledged that climate change also influences species interactions. We review and synthesize literature information on biotic interactions and use it to argue that the abundance of species and the direction of selection during climate change vary depending on how their trophic interactions become disrupted. Plant abundance can be controlled by aboveground and belowground multitrophic level interactions with herbivores, pathogens, symbionts and their enemies. We discuss how these interactions may alter during climate change and the resulting species range shifts. We suggest conceptual analogies between species responses to climate warming and exotic species introduced in new ranges. There are also important differences: the herbivores, pathogens and mutualistic symbionts of rangeexpanding species and their enemies may co-migrate, and the continuous gene flow under climate warming can make adaptation in the expansion zone of range expanders different from that of cross-continental exotic species. We conclude that under climate change, results of altered species interactions may vary, ranging from species becoming rare to disproportionately abundant. Taking these possibilities into account will provide a new perspective on predicting species distribution under climate change.

Projected poleward shift of king penguins' ( Aptenodytes patagonicus ) foraging range at the Crozet Islands, southern Indian Ocean

“…Future studies should favour community and ecosystem approaches, including both physical and biotic interactions across trophic levels [59,60], as very little is known about large-scale oceanographic mechanisms driving long-term changes in primary [61] and secondary productivity in sub-Antarctic regions.…”

Non-climatic constraints on upper elevational plant range expansion under climate change

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Climate change threatens giant panda protection in the 21st century

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