No abstract

The impact of the ongoing rapid climate change on natural systems is a major issue for human societies. An important challenge for ecologists is to identify the climatic factors that drive temporal variation in demographic parameters, and, ultimately, the dynamics of natural populations. The analysis of long-term monitoring data at the individual scale is often the only available approach to estimate reliably demographic parameters of vertebrate populations. We review statistical procedures used in these analyses to study links between climatic factors and survival variation in vertebrate populations. We evaluated the efficiency of various statistical procedures from an analysis of survival in a population of white stork, Ciconia ciconia, a simulation study and a critical review of 78 papers published in the ecological literature. We identified six potential methodological problems: (i) the use of statistical models that are not well-suited to the analysis of long-term monitoring data collected at the individual scale; (ii) low ratios of number of statistical units to number of candidate climatic covariates; (iii) collinearity among candidate climatic covariates; (iv) the use of statistics, to assess statistical support for climatic covariates effects, that deal poorly with unexplained variation in survival; (v) spurious detection of effects due to the co-occurrence of trends in survival and the climatic covariate time series; and (vi) assessment of the magnitude of climatic effects on survival using measures that cannot be compared across case studies. The critical review of the ecological literature revealed that five of these six methodological problems were often poorly tackled. As a consequence we concluded that many of these studies generated hypotheses but only few provided solid evidence for impacts of climatic factors on survival or reliable measures of the magnitude of such impacts. We provide practical advice to solve efficiently most of the methodological problems identified. The only frequent issue that still lacks a straightforward solution was the low ratio of the number of statistical units to the number of candidate climatic covariates. In the perspective of increasing this ratio and therefore of producing more robust analyses of the links between climate and demography, we suggest leads to improve the procedures for designing field protocols and selecting a set of candidate climatic covariates. Finally, we present recent statistical methods with potential interest for assessing the impact of climatic factors on demographic parameters.

Comparative analyses of survival senescence by using life tables have identified generalizations including the observation that mammals senesce faster than similar-sized birds. These generalizations have been challenged because of limitations of life-table approaches and the growing appreciation that senescence is more than an increasing probability of death. Without using life tables, we examine senescence rates in annual individual fitness using 20 individual-based data sets of terrestrial vertebrates with contrasting life histories and body size. We find that senescence is widespread in the wild and equally likely to occur in survival and reproduction. Additionally, mammals senesce faster than birds because they have a faster life history for a given body size. By allowing us to disentangle the effects of two major fitness components our methods allow an assessment of the robustness of the prevalent life-table approach. Focusing on one aspect of life history - survival or recruitment - can provide reliable information on overall senescence.

Electronic tracking tags have revolutionized our understanding of broad-scale movements and habitat use of highly mobile marine animals, but a large gap in our knowledge still remains for a wide range of small species. Here, we report the extraordinary transequatorial postbreeding migrations of a small seabird, the sooty shearwater, obtained with miniature archival tags that log data for estimating position, dive depth, and ambient temperature. Tracks (262 ؎ 23 days) reveal that shearwaters fly across the entire Pacific Ocean in a figure-eight pattern while traveling 64,037 ؎ 9,779 km roundtrip, the longest animal migration ever recorded electronically. Each shearwater made a prolonged stopover in one of three discrete regions off Japan, Alaska, or California before returning to New Zealand through a relatively narrow corridor in the central Pacific Ocean. Transit rates as high as 910 ؎ 186 km⅐day ؊1 were recorded, and shearwaters accessed prey resources in both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere's most productive waters from the surface to 68.2 m depth. Our results indicate that sooty shearwaters integrate oceanic resources throughout the Pacific Basin on a yearly scale. Sooty shearwater populations today are declining, and because they operate on a global scale, they may serve as an important indicator of climate change and ocean health.avian migration ͉ diving behavior ͉ habitat use ͉ sooty shearwater ͉ tracking

The in£uence of wind patterns on behaviour and e¡ort of free-ranging male wandering albatrosses (Diomedea exulans) was studied with miniaturized external heart-rate recorders in conjunction with satellite transmitters and activity recorders. Heart rate was used as an instantaneous index of energy expenditure. When cruising with favourable tail or side winds, wandering albatrosses can achieve high £ight speeds while expending little more energy than birds resting on land. In contrast, heart rate increases concomitantly with increasing head winds, and £ight speeds decrease. Our results show that e¡ort is greatest when albatrosses take o¡ from or land on the water. On a larger scale, we show that in order for birds to have the highest probability of experiencing favourable winds, wandering albatrosses use predictable weather systems to engage in a stereotypical £ight pattern of large looping tracks. When heading north, albatrosses £y in anticlockwise loops, and to the south, movements are in a clockwise direction. Thus, the capacity to integrate instantaneous eco-physiological measures with records of largescale £ight and wind patterns allows us to understand better the complex interplay between the evolution of morphological, physiological and behavioural adaptations of albatrosses in the windiest place on earth.

Variations in ocean-atmosphere coupling over time in the Southern Ocean have dominant effects on sea-ice extent and ecosystem structure, but the ultimate consequences of such environmental changes for large marine predators cannot be accurately predicted because of the absence of long-term data series on key demographic parameters. Here, we use the longest time series available on demographic parameters of an Antarctic large predator breeding on fast ice and relying on food resources from the Southern Ocean. We show that over the past 50 years, the population of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) in Terre Adélie has declined by 50% because of a decrease in adult survival during the late 1970s. At this time there was a prolonged abnormally warm period with reduced sea-ice extent. Mortality rates increased when warm sea-surface temperatures occurred in the foraging area and when annual sea-ice extent was reduced, and were higher for males than for females. In contrast with survival, emperor penguins hatched fewer eggs when winter sea-ice was extended. These results indicate strong and contrasting effects of large-scale oceanographic processes and sea-ice extent on the demography of emperor penguins, and their potential high susceptibility to climate change.

Antarctic and Southern Ocean (ASO) marine ecosystems have been changing for at least the last 30 years, including in response to increasing ocean temperatures and changes in the extent and seasonality of sea ice; the magnitude and direction of these changes differ between regions around Antarctica that could see populations of the same species changing differently in different regions. This article reviews current and expected changes in ASO physical habitats in response to climate change. It then reviews how these changes may impact the autecology of marine biota of this polar region: microbes, zooplankton, salps, Antarctic krill, fish, cephalopods, marine mammals, seabirds, and benthos. The general prognosis for ASO marine habitats is for an overall warming and freshening, strengthening of westerly winds, with a potential pole-ward movement of those winds and the frontal systems, and an increase in ocean eddy activity. Many habitat parameters will have regionally specific changes, particularly relating to sea ice characteristics and seasonal dynamics. Lower trophic levels are expected to move south as the ocean conditions in which they are currently found move pole-ward. For Antarctic krill and finfish, the latitudinal breadth of their range will depend on their tolerance of warming oceans and changes to productivity. Ocean acidification is a concern not only for calcifying organisms but also for crustaceans such as Antarctic krill; it is also likely to be the most important change in benthic habitats over the coming century. For marine mammals and birds, the expected changes primarily relate to their flexibility in moving to alternative locations for food and the energetic cost of longer or more complex foraging trips for those that are bound to breeding colonies. Few species are sufficiently well studied to make comprehensive species-specific vulnerability assessments possible. Priorities for future work are discussed.

It is an open question how animals find food in dynamic natural environments where they possess little or no knowledge of where resources are located. Foraging theory predicts that in environments with sparsely distributed target resources, where forager knowledge about resources' locations is incomplete, Lévy flight movements optimize the success of random searches. However, the putative success of Lévy foraging has been demonstrated only in model simulations. Here, we use high-temporal-resolution Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking of wandering (Diomedea exulans) and black-browed albatrosses (Thalassarche melanophrys) with simultaneous recording of prey captures, to show that both species exhibit Lévy and Brownian movement patterns. We find that total prey masses captured by wandering albatrosses during Lévy movements exceed daily energy requirements by nearly fourfold, and approached yields by Brownian movements in other habitats. These results, together with our reanalysis of previously published albatross data, overturn the notion that albatrosses do not exhibit Lévy patterns during foraging, and demonstrate that Lévy flights of predators in dynamic natural environments present a beneficial alternative strategy to simple, spatially intensive behaviors. Our findings add support to the possibility that biological Lévy flight may have naturally evolved as a search strategy in response to sparse resources and scant information.optimal foraging | organism | predator-prey | telemetry | evolution T heoretically, in situations where animals possess limited or no information on the whereabouts of resources, a specialized random walk known as a Lévy flight can yield encounters with sparsely and randomly distributed targets (e.g., prey) more efficiently than random walks such as Brownian motion (1, 2), which are efficient where prey is abundant (3) and probably more predictable (4, 5). Lévy flight, in which movement displacements (steps) are drawn from a probability distribution with a powerlaw tail (a Pareto-Lévy distribution), describes a search pattern composed of many small-step 'walk clusters' interspersed by longer relocations. This pattern is repeated across all scales, such that PðlÞ ∼ l −μ , with 1 < μ ≤ 3 where l is the flight length (move-steplength), and μ the power-law exponent. Simple model simulations of Lévy search generally describe a forager moving along consecutive step lengths drawn from a power law distribution, such that when randomly and sparsely distributed prey is detected within a "sensory" field, the current step length is terminated, the prey is consumed and then a new random direction and step length are selected (3). These Lévy search-model simulations indicate an optimal exponent of μ ≈ 2 for the power-law move-step frequency distribution, leading to searches that increase the probability of a forager encountering new prey patches (1-3). In recent years, Lévy flight or Lévy walk patterns approaching the theoretically optimal value of μ ≈ 2 have been identified in movements of divers...