Predicting Spacecraft Telemetry Data by Using Grey–Markov Model with Sliding Window and Particle Swarm Optimization

Abstract

Predicting telemetry data is vital for the proper operation of orbiting spacecraft. The Grey–Markov model with sliding window (GMSW) combines Grey model (GM (1, 1)) and Markov chain forecast model, which allows it to describe the fluctuation of telemetry data. However, the Grey–Markov model with sliding window does not provide better predictions of telemetry series with the pseudo-periodic phenomenon. To overcome this drawback, we improved the GMSW model by applying particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm a sliding window for better prediction of spacecraft telemetry data (denoted as PGMSW model). In order to produce more accurate predictions, background-value optimization is specially carried out using the particle swarm optimization technique in conventional GM (1, 1). For verifying PGMSW, it is utilized in the prediction of the cyclic fluctuation of telemetry series data and exponential variations therein. The simulation results indicate that the PGMSW model provides accurate solutions for prediction problems similar to the pseudo-periodic telemetry series.