Predicting risk of near midair collisions in controlled airspace

Datta, Koushik; Oliver, Robert M.

doi:10.1016/0191-2615(91)90006-5

Cited by 11 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…In the field of ATM, such models were first used to analyze the collision risk between adjacent routes of the North Atlantic track system [21,22,23]. Subsequently, they have also been used to investigate the safety of a wide variety of airspace types, including high altitude en route airways [24,25,26], low altitude terminal airspaces [27,28,29,30], and for concepts that closely resemble unstructured and layered airspace concepts [31,32,33].…”

Section: No Of Combinations Of Two Aircraftmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Here it can be seen that A c is approximated as a rectangular 'conflict search area', and its size is defined by the conflict detection look-ahead time, t l , the horizontal separation requirement, S h , and the expected horizontal relative velocity between aircraft, E (V r,h ). Since a conflict is detected if the trajectory of another aircraft is predicted to pass through A c , p 2d can be expressed as [27,28,30]:…”

Section: Conflict Probability For 2d Airspacementioning

confidence: 99%

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Three-dimensional conflict count models for unstructured and layered airspace designs

Sunil

Ellerbroek

Maas

2018

Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies

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This paper presents analytical models that describe the safety of unstructured and layered en route airspace designs. Here, 'unstructured airspace' refers to airspace designs that offer operators complete freedom in path planning, whereas 'layered airspace' refers to airspace concepts that utilize heading-altitude rules to vertically separate cruising aircraft based on their travel directions. With a focus on the intrinsic safety provided by an airspace design, the models compute instantaneous conflict counts as a function of traffic demand and airspace design parameters, such as traffic separation requirements and the permitted heading range per flight level. While previous studies have focused primarily on conflicts between cruising aircraft, the models presented here also take into account conflicts involving climbing and descending traffic. Fast-time simulation experiments used to validate the modeling approach indicate that the models estimate instantaneous conflict counts with high accuracy for both airspace designs. The simulation results also show that climbing and descending traffic caused the majority of conflicts for layered airspaces with a narrow heading range per flight level, highlighting the importance of including all aircraft flight phases for a comprehensive safety analysis. Because such trends could be accurately predicted by the three-dimensional models derived here, these analytical models can be used as tools for airspace design applications as they provide a detailed understanding of the relationships between the parameters that influence the safety of unstructured and layered airspace designs.

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Section: No Of Combinations Of Two Aircraftmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Conflict Probability For 2d Airspacementioning

confidence: 99%

Three-dimensional conflict count models for unstructured and layered airspace designs

Sunil

Ellerbroek

Maas

2018

Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies

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“…The analysis used the method of Poisson regression, a standard technique for analyzing count data, particularly when the counts involve infrequent events such as accidents, incidents, or OEs. Poisson regression has been applied extensively in aviation risk prediction and modeling (18,19). Daily, en route OEs for all continental ATC sectors follow the Poisson distribution.…”

Section: Analysis Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Safety of Efficiency: Link Between Operational Performance and Operational Errors in the National Airspace System

Hansen

Zhang

2004

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation R

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Safety and efficiency are two of the most important goals of the national airspace system (NAS). However, these goals are typically viewed as competing or independent, rather than complementary. The complementary aspect of safety and efficiency is illustrated from the point of view of human factors and ergonomics. Statistical methods were used to analyze safety and efficiency performance measurements, operational errors, and daily flight time index (DFTI). Factors related to weather and complexity were found to be more likely on days with poor operational performance as measured by DFTI. The results indicate a positive relationship between NAS safety and efficiency and imply that NAS safety performance may be improved by increasing efficiency, and vice versa.

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“…The aim is to find the frequency of pairs of aircraft flying at above FL290 being near each other; near being defined as less than 1,000 ft vertical separation. A stochastic model is presented in Datta and Oliver (1991) for MAC between both commercial and GA as a function of the type of control airspace in which they are operating as well as aircraft velocities, geometries of approach patterns, and aircraft density. The work concludes that by far the most risky flight appears to be GA interacting with other GA in positively controlled environments.…”

Section: Manned Aircraft Collision Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probability of Low‐Altitude Midair Collision Between General Aviation and Unmanned Aircraft

Cour-Harbo

Schiøler

2019

Risk Analysis

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Unmanned aircrafts (UA) usually fly below 500 ft to be segregated from manned aircraft. However, while general aviation (GA) usually do fly above 500 ft in areas where UA are allowed to operate, GA will at times also fly below 500 ft. Consequently, there is a distinct risk of near‐miss encounters as well as actual midair collisions (MACs). This work presents a model for determining this risk based on physical parameters of the aircraft and actual figures for the numbers of GA in a given airspace, as well as the probability of having GA below 500 ft. The aim is to achieve a prediction with a precision better than one order of magnitude relative to the true MAC rate value. The model is applied to Danish airspace and the MAC rate for unmitigated operations of UA is found to be approximately 10−6 MAC per flight hour. The model is particularly well suited for beyond visual line‐of‐sight operations, and is useful for UA operators for conducting risk assessment of planned operations as well as for regulators for determining appropriate operational requirements.

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Predicting risk of near midair collisions in controlled airspace

Cited by 11 publications

References 4 publications

Three-dimensional conflict count models for unstructured and layered airspace designs

Three-dimensional conflict count models for unstructured and layered airspace designs

Safety of Efficiency: Link Between Operational Performance and Operational Errors in the National Airspace System

Probability of Low‐Altitude Midair Collision Between General Aviation and Unmanned Aircraft

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