Predicting range shifts of Asian elephants under global change

Kanagaraj, Rajapandian; Araújo, Miguel B.; Barman, Rathin; Davidar, Priya; De, Rahul; Digal, Dinesh Kumar; Gopi, Govindan Veeraswami; Johnsingh, A. J. T.; Kakati, Kashmira; Kramer‐Schadt, Stephanie; Lamichhane, Babu Ram; Lyngdoh, Salvador; Madhusudan, M. D.; Najar, Muneer Ul Islam; Parida, Jyotirmayee; Pradhan, Narendra Man Babu; Puyravaud, Jean‐Philippe; Raghunath, R.; Rahim, P. P. Abdul; Selvan, K. Muthamizh; Subedi, Naresh; Trabucco, Antonio; Udayraj, Swati; Wiegand, Thorsten; Williams, A. Christy; Goyal, Surendra Prakash

doi:10.1111/ddi.12898

Cited by 67 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 73 publications

(100 reference statements)

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“…To date, a large number of connectivity models and metrics have been proposed, such as those based on metapopulation theory (Hanski andOvaskainen 2000, Moilanen andNieminen 2002), network theory (Urban and Keitt 2001, Bodin and Norberg 2006, Saura and Pascual-Hortal 2007, and on circuit theory (McRae et al 2008). These approaches have also been employed to evaluate the impacts of climate change on habitat connectivity and species persistence (Dilts et al 2016, Albert et al 2017, Rehnus et al 2018, Kanagaraj et al 2019. Most connectivity models rely on spatial snap-shots of landscape structure to generate static connectivity estimates; however, some species predicted to experience ARH decrease or increase do not actually have immediate population declines or growth as expected (Metzger et al 2009, Semper-Pascual et al 2018, Lira et al 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Importance of spatio–temporal connectivity to maintain species experiencing range shifts

et al. 2020

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Climate change can affect the habitat resources available to species by changing habitat quantity, suitability and spatial configuration, which largely determine population persistence in the landscape. In this context, dispersal is a central process for species to track their niche. Assessments of the amount of reachable habitat (ARH) using static snap‐shots do not account, however, for the temporal overlap of habitat patches that may enhance stepping‐stone effects. Here, we quantified the impacts of climate change on the ARH using a spatio–temporal connectivity model. We first explored the importance of spatio–temporal connectivity relative to purely spatial connectivity in a changing climate by generating virtual species distributions and analyzed the relative effects of changes in habitat quantity, suitability and configuration. Then, we studied the importance of spatio–temporal connectivity in three vertebrate species with divergent responses to climate change in North America (grey wolf, Canadian lynx and white‐tailed deer). We found that the spatio–temporal connectivity could enhance the stepping‐stone effect for species predicted to experience range contractions, and the relative importance of the spatio–temporal connectivity increased with the reduction in habitat quantity and suitability. Conversely, for species that are likely to expand their ranges, spatio–temporal connectivity had no additional contribution to improve the ARH. We also found that changes in habitat amount (quantity and suitability) were more influential than changes in habitat configuration in determining the relative importance of spatio–temporal connectivity. We conclude that spatio–temporal connectivity may provide less biased and more realistic estimates of habitat connectivity than purely spatial connectivity.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Importance of spatio–temporal connectivity to maintain species experiencing range shifts

et al. 2020

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“…Incorporating land cover into species distribution models in dynamic geographic regions such as Southeast Asia presents a considerable challenge for model accuracy, because of temporal mismatches between (historical) occurrence records and (contemporary) land cover data. Indeed, previous research investigating changes in suitable habitat under climate change typically did not include land cover 11 , 104 or included it as a variable in the model itself 12 , 105 , 106 . Here, we incorporated land cover post-hoc, which allowed us to leverage the maximum amount of occurrence-environment data without incorporating errors generated from those temporal mismatches 46 , 47 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of climate change and land cover on the distributions of a critical tree family in the Philippines

Pang

Alban

Webb

2021

Sci Rep

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Southeast Asian forests are dominated by the tree family Dipterocarpaceae, whose abundance and diversity are key to maintaining the structure and function of tropical forests. Like most biodiversity, dipterocarps are threatened by deforestation and climate change, so it is crucial to understand the potential impacts of these threats on current and future dipterocarp distributions. We developed species distribution models (SDMs) for 19 species of dipterocarps in the Philippines, which were projected onto current and two 2070 representative concentration pathway (RCP) climate scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Current land cover was incorporated as a post-hoc correction to restrict projections onto intact habitats. Land cover correction alone reduced current species distributions by a median 67%, and within protected areas by 37%. After land cover correction, climate change reduced distributions by a median 16% (RCP 4.5) and 27% (RCP 8.5) at the national level, with similar losses in protected areas. There was a detectable upward elevation shift of species distributions, consisting of suitable habitat losses below 300 m and gains above 600 m. Species-rich stable areas of continued habitat suitability (i.e., climate macrorefugia) fell largely outside current delineations of protected areas, indicating a need to improve protected area planning. This study highlights how SDMs can provide projections that can inform protected area planning in the tropics.

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“…Links between climate change, habitat loss and increasing conservation conflicts have been reported (e.g. Kanagaraj et al, 2019), and climate change is likely to be one of the main threats facing people and wildlife within the next decades (Nyhus, 2016). Further in-depth socio-ecological studies are needed to determine the possible connection between climate change and the intensification of future conflicts.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change contributing to conflicts between livestock farming and guanaco conservation in central Chile: a subjective theories approach

Vargas

Carrasco

Rust

et al. 2020

Oryx

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Negative interactions between guanacos Lama guanicoe and ranchers have recently intensified in central Chile because guanacos are perceived to be competing with livestock for pasture resources. We examined this conservation conflict with a novel approach that considers ranchers' subjective theories, to better understand the origins of the conflict and to identify effective conservation measures based on the participants' explanations. Our findings indicate that ranchers see the source of the current problem in a shift towards increasingly arid conditions associated with climate change. We suggest the ranchers’ perceived problems are not only caused by interspecific resource competition arising from this climatic shift, but also by reported difficulties in negotiating with governmental institutions. This study adds to knowledge of human–wildlife interactions by exploring a further dimension of the complex ecological and social interactions taking place on livestock farms. We recommend identifying effective, acceptable solutions by considering and understanding the everyday knowledge of the conflict's protagonists and their potential for change.

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Predicting range shifts of Asian elephants under global change

Cited by 67 publications

References 73 publications

Importance of spatio–temporal connectivity to maintain species experiencing range shifts

Importance of spatio–temporal connectivity to maintain species experiencing range shifts

Effects of climate change and land cover on the distributions of a critical tree family in the Philippines

Climate change contributing to conflicts between livestock farming and guanaco conservation in central Chile: a subjective theories approach

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