Importance of spatio–temporal connectivity to maintain species experiencing range shifts

Abstract

Climate change can affect the habitat resources available to species by changing habitat quantity, suitability and spatial configuration, which largely determine population persistence in the landscape. In this context, dispersal is a central process for species to track their niche. Assessments of the amount of reachable habitat (ARH) using static snap‐shots do not account, however, for the temporal overlap of habitat patches that may enhance stepping‐stone effects. Here, we quantified the impacts of climate change on the ARH using a spatio–temporal connectivity model. We first explored the importance of spatio–temporal connectivity relative to purely spatial connectivity in a changing climate by generating virtual species distributions and analyzed the relative effects of changes in habitat quantity, suitability and configuration. Then, we studied the importance of spatio–temporal connectivity in three vertebrate species with divergent responses to climate change in North America (grey wolf, Canadian lynx and white‐tailed deer). We found that the spatio–temporal connectivity could enhance the stepping‐stone effect for species predicted to experience range contractions, and the relative importance of the spatio–temporal connectivity increased with the reduction in habitat quantity and suitability. Conversely, for species that are likely to expand their ranges, spatio–temporal connectivity had no additional contribution to improve the ARH. We also found that changes in habitat amount (quantity and suitability) were more influential than changes in habitat configuration in determining the relative importance of spatio–temporal connectivity. We conclude that spatio–temporal connectivity may provide less biased and more realistic estimates of habitat connectivity than purely spatial connectivity.

Climate change models predict decreases in the range of a microendemic freshwater fish in Honduras

“…One of the most concerning aspects of climate change in Central America is the likelihood of changes in seasonal dynamics of rainy and dry seasons. These changes are more likely to modify the availability and quality of habitats in the actual ranges of C. wesseli, www.nature.com/scientificreports/ shrinking the distribution of the species and potentially reducing the size of populations 31,32 , which should be of importance throughout ongoing and future conservation planning. This study demonstrates that high quality distributional data that can be used for garnering a better ecological understanding of a species can also be used to predict future effects of climate change.…”

“…One of the most concerning aspects of climate change in Central America is the likelihood of changes in seasonal dynamics of rainy and dry seasons. These changes are more likely to modify the availability and quality of habitats in the actual ranges of C. wesseli , shrinking the distribution of the species and potentially reducing the size of populations 31 , 32 , which should be of importance throughout ongoing and future conservation planning.…”

Assessing the Impact of Urban Expansion on Surrounding Forested Landscape Connectivity across Space and Time

“…As such, patch i and j can be connected across space and time when considering the temporal stepping stone effect of patch k. This figure is adapted from ref. [16]. (a) the spatial distribution of habitat patches in time point t 1 ; (b) the spatial distribution of habitat patches in time point t 2 ; (c) the potential interactions between habitant patches across time point t 1 and t 2 .…”

“…Furthermore, only a handful of studies have provided impact assessments from a spatiotemporal perspective (e.g., refs. [16][17][18][19]), mainly due to that most of the connectivity models [20][21][22][23] are spatial snap-shots [24], which facilitate impact evaluation by comparing connectivity assessments performed independently at multiple time points. Nevertheless, these purely spatial connectivity models overlook the temporal interactions among habitat patches, such as the facilitation or impedance effect caused by the appearance or disappearance of stepping-stone habitat patches over time [17], so that they may generate misleading assessments (see schematic representation in Figure 1).…”

“…This figure is adapted from ref. [16]. (a) the spatial distribution of habitat patches in time point t1; (b) the spatial distribution of habitat patches in time point t2; (c) the potential interactions between habitant patches across time point t1 and t2.…”