Predicting Potential Risk Areas of Human Plague for the Western Usambara Mountains, Lushoto District, Tanzania

Neerinckx, Simon; Peterson, A. Townsend; Gulinck, Hubert; Deckers, Jozef; Kimaro, Didas N.; Leirs, Herwig

doi:10.4269/ajtmh.2010.09-0426

Cited by 38 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 32 publications

(46 reference statements)

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“…Already previous studies in the area have shown that every plague outbreak was preceded by rodent outbreak (Kamugisha et al, 2007). Similar results have been reported by Neerinckx et al (2010) and Eisen et al (2012) in Tanzania and Uganda, respectively.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

“…Several studies in the West Usambara Mountains in Lushoto Tanzania have shown a large diversity of small mammals and fleas implicated as plague hosts and vectors, respectively (Kilonzo & Msangi, 1991;Laudisoit et al, 2007). Furthermore, Kamugisha et al (2007) and Neerinckx et al (2010) have found that plague reported cases were located at elevations above 1,500m in Lushoto, Tanzania. Similar results have been reported in Uganda that plague cases are common in areas above 1300m (MacMillan et al, 2011;Eisen et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predicting small mammal and flea abundance using landform and soil properties in a plague endemic area in Lushoto District, Tanzania

Meliyo

Kimaro

Msanya

et al. 2014

Tanzania J Hlth Res

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Small mammals particularly rodents, are considered the primary natural hosts of plague. Literature suggests that plague persistence in natural foci has a root cause in soils. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between on the one hand landforms and associated soil properties, and on the other hand small mammals and fleas in West Usambara Mountains in Tanzania, a plague endemic area. Standard field survey methods coupled with Geographical Information System (GIS) technique were used to examine landform and soils characteristics. Soil samples were analysed in the laboratory for physico-chemical properties. Small mammals were trapped on pre-established landform positions and identified to genus/species level. Fleas were removed from the trapped small mammals and counted. Exploration of landform and soil data was done using ArcGIS Toolbox functions and descriptive statistical analysis. The relationships between landforms, soils, small mammals and fleas were established by generalised linear regression model (GLM) operated in R statistics software. Results show that landforms and soils influence the abundance of small mammals and fleas and their spatial distribution. The abundance of small mammals and fleas increased with increase in elevation. Small mammal species richness also increases with elevation. A landform-soil model shows that available phosphorus, slope aspect and elevation were statistically significant predictors explaining richness and abundance of small mammals. Fleas' abundance and spatial distribution were influenced by hill-shade, available phosphorus and base saturation. The study suggests that landforms and soils have a strong influence on the richness and evenness of small mammals and their fleas' abundance hence could be used to explain plague dynamics in the area. _________________________________________________________________________________________

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting small mammal and flea abundance using landform and soil properties in a plague endemic area in Lushoto District, Tanzania

Meliyo

Kimaro

Msanya

et al. 2014

Tanzania J Hlth Res

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“…Such patterns are consistent with observations made in other contexts. 26,53 Rodent species other than M. natalensis also exhibited strong affinities for particular land-use types. However, all five rodent species captured in agricultural sites were also detected in conserved sites.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Land Use on Plague (Yersinia pestis) Activity in Rodents in Tanzania

McCauley

Salkeld

Young

et al. 2015

The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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Abstract. Understanding the effects of land-use change on zoonotic disease risk is a pressing global health concern. Here, we compare prevalence of Yersinia pestis, the etiologic agent of plague, in rodents across two land-use types-agricultural and conserved-in northern Tanzania. Estimated abundance of seropositive rodents nearly doubled in agricultural sites compared with conserved sites. This relationship between land-use type and abundance of seropositive rodents is likely mediated by changes in rodent and flea community composition, particularly via an increase in the abundance of the commensal species, Mastomys natalensis, in agricultural habitats. There was mixed support for rodent species diversity negatively impacting Y. pestis seroprevalence. Together, these results suggest that land-use change could affect the risk of local transmission of plague, and raise critical questions about transmission dynamics at the interface of conserved and agricultural habitats. These findings emphasize the importance of understanding disease ecology in the context of rapidly proceeding landscape change.

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“…12 Several statistical models have been constructed using geographic information system (GIS)-based and remotely sensed (RS) data to evaluate landscape variables that are associated with plague risk and attempt to explain this spatial heterogeneity. 10,[12][13][14][15][16][17] For example, within the West Nile region of Uganda, which is the primary epidemiologic focus within that country, 18 a fine resolution GIS-based model revealed that areas of higher elevation (above 1,300 m) that are wetter, with less vegetative growth and more bare soil during the dry month of January, pose an elevated risk of plague occurrence. 12 Such models are useful for identifying areas of elevated risk based on landscape variables, which aids in targeting limited public health resources.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Landscape and Residential Variables Associated with Plague-Endemic Villages in the West Nile Region of Uganda

MacMillan¹,

Enscore²,

Ogen-Odoi³

et al. 2011

The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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Abstract. Plague, caused by the bacteria Yersinia pestis , is a severe, often fatal disease. This study focuses on the plagueendemic West Nile region of Uganda, where limited information is available regarding environmental and behavioral risk factors associated with plague infection. We conducted observational surveys of 10 randomly selected huts within historically classified case and control villages (four each) two times during the dry season of 2006 ( N = 78 case huts and N = 80 control huts), which immediately preceded a large plague outbreak. By coupling a previously published landscape-level statistical model of plague risk with this observational survey, we were able to identify potential residence-based risk factors for plague associated with huts within historic case or control villages (e.g., distance to neighboring homestead and presence of pigs near the home) and huts within areas previously predicted as elevated risk or low risk (e.g., corn and other annual crops grown near the home, water storage in the home, and processed commercial foods stored in the home). The identified variables are consistent with current ecologic theories on plague transmission dynamics. This preliminary study serves as a foundation for future case control studies in the area.

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Predicting Potential Risk Areas of Human Plague for the Western Usambara Mountains, Lushoto District, Tanzania

Cited by 38 publications

References 32 publications

Predicting small mammal and flea abundance using landform and soil properties in a plague endemic area in Lushoto District, Tanzania

Predicting small mammal and flea abundance using landform and soil properties in a plague endemic area in Lushoto District, Tanzania

Effects of Land Use on Plague (Yersinia pestis) Activity in Rodents in Tanzania

Landscape and Residential Variables Associated with Plague-Endemic Villages in the West Nile Region of Uganda

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