Predicting potential distribution of Ziziphus spinosa (Bunge) H.H. Hu ex F.H. Chen in China under climate change scenarios

Abstract

Ziziphus spinosa (Bunge) H.H. Hu ex F.H. Chen is a woody plant species of the family Rhamnaceae (order Rhamnales) that possesses high nutritional and medicinal value. Predicting the effects of climate change on the distribution of Z. spinosa is of great significance for the investigation, protection, and exploitation of this germplasm resource. For this study, optimized maximum entropy models were employed to predict the distribution patterns and changes of its present (1970–2000) and future (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) potential suitable regions in China under multiple climate scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0 & SSP5‐8.5). The results revealed that the total area of the present potential suitable region for Z. spinosa is 162.60 × 104 km2, which accounts for 16.94% of China's territory. Within this area, the regions having low, medium, and high suitability were 80.14 × 104 km2, 81.50 × 104 km2, and 0.96 × 104 km2, respectively, with the high suitability regions being distributed primarily in Shanxi, Hebei, and Beijing Provinces. Except for SSP‐1‐2.6‐2070s, SSP‐5‐8.5‐2070s, and SSP‐5‐8.5‐2090s, the suitable areas for Z. spinosa in the future increased to different degrees. Meanwhile, considering the distribution of Z. spinosa during different periods and under different climate scenarios, our study predicted that the low impact areas of Z. spinosa were mainly restricted to Shanxi, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Gansu, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Jilin Provinces. The results of core distributional shifts showed that, except for SSP1‐2.6, the center of the potential suitable region of Z. spinosa exhibited a trend of gradually shifting to the northwest.

Modeling the Potential Distribution Patterns of the Invasive Plant Species Phytolacca americana in China in Response to Climate Change

“…Examples include P. massoniana ex-tending northward [21], Vaccinium membranaceum Douglas ex Torr. (Ericaceae) transitioning to high-elevation areas [53], and Z. spinosa's suitable area gradually moving northward [20].…”

“…(Caprifoliaceae) [19], Ziziphus jujuba var. spinosa (Rhamnaceae) [20], Pinus massoniana Lamb. (Pinaceae) [21], and Litsea cubeba (Lour.)…”

The optimized Maxent model reveals the pattern of distribution and changes in the suitable cultivation areas for Reaumuria songarica being driven by climate change

“…Higher AUC values indicate better model fit, with AUC ranging from 0 to 1. Specifically, AUC values less than 0.7 represent poor prediction performance; values between 0.7 and 0.8 represents moderate predictive performance; values between 0.8 and 0.9 represents good predictive performance, and values between 0.9 and 1 represents excellent predictive performance (Warren et al, 2010;Zhao et al, 2022). MTSPS was chosen as a threshold to classify suitable and unsuitable areas (Liu et al, 2016;Zhao, Zhang, et al, 2021).…”

Potentially suitable habitats of Daodi goji berry in China under climate change

“…var. spinosa (Bunge) Hu ex H. F. Chou] in the future was found to increase except for SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 in the 2070s, and SSP5-8.5 in the 2090s, and the centroids of its suitable region shifted to the northwest ( Zhao et al., 2022a ). The suitable habitats of shiny-leaf prickly-ash [ Zanthoxylum nitidum (Roxb.)…”

“…Species distribution models (SDMs) are powerful tools for predicting the potential geographical distribution of species based on currently known species distribution records and the corresponding site characteristics, which have been widely used in biological introduction and cultivation, species protection, and invasive species prevention ( Santana et al., 2019 ; Zhao et al., 2022a ; Yang et al., 2023 ). Various SDMs, such as Bioclim, Climex, Domain, GARP, and MaxEnt, have been developed to predict the potential distribution of species ( Srivastava et al., 2020 ; Li et al., 2023 ).…”