Predicting Parcel-Scale Redevelopment Using Linear and Logistic Regression—the Berkeley Neighborhood Denver, Colorado Case Study

Abstract

Many watershed challenges can be associated with the increased impervious cover that accompanies urban development. This study establishes a methodology of evaluating the spatial and temporal distribution of infill re-development on a parcel scale, using publicly available urban planning data. This was achieved through a combination of linear and logistic regression. First, a “business as usual” linear growth scenario was developed based on available building coverage data. Then, a logistic regression model of historic redevelopment, as a function of various parcel attributes, was used to predict each parcel’s probability of future redevelopment. Finally, the linear growth model forecasts were applied to the parcels with the greatest probability of future redevelopment. Results indicate that building cover change within the study site, from 2004–2014, followed a linear pattern (R2 = 0.98). During this period the total building cover increased by 17%, or 1.7% per year on average. Applying the linear regression model to the 2014 building coverage data resulted in an increase of 820,498 sq. ft. (18.8 acres) in building coverage over a ten-year period, translating to a 14% overall increase in impervious neighborhoods. The parcel and building variables selected for inclusion in the logistic regression model during the model calibration phase were total value, year built, percent difference between current and max building cover, and the current use classifications—rowhome and apartment. The calibrated model was applied to a validation dataset, which predicted redevelopment accuracy at 81%. This method will provide municipalities experiencing infill redevelopment a tool that can be implemented to enhance watershed planning, management, and policy development.

Investigating Tradeoffs of Green to Grey Stormwater Infrastructure Using a Planning-Level Decision Support Tool

“…This neighborhood is undergoing rapid infill development, also referred to as redevelopment, which is a phenomenon where developed parcels of land are redeveloped into denser land uses resulting in less green space and higher imperviousness [54,55]. Residential parcels with moderately sized structures and vacant areas are being redeveloped into high-density residential parcels with structures that take up a larger percentage of the parcel area [56]. Cherry et al (2019) predicted that between 2014 and 2024, 15% of the total parcels in Berkeley will undergo infill development resulting in a 1% absolute increase in imperviousness percentage [56].…”

“…Residential parcels with moderately sized structures and vacant areas are being redeveloped into high-density residential parcels with structures that take up a larger percentage of the parcel area [56]. Cherry et al (2019) predicted that between 2014 and 2024, 15% of the total parcels in Berkeley will undergo infill development resulting in a 1% absolute increase in imperviousness percentage [56]. Panos et al (2018) applied the work done in Cherry et al (2019) to a calibrated and validated hydrologic model in PCSWMM to assess the impacts of infill development on current stormwater runoff volumes [53,56].…”

“…Cherry et al (2019) predicted that between 2014 and 2024, 15% of the total parcels in Berkeley will undergo infill development resulting in a 1% absolute increase in imperviousness percentage [56]. Panos et al (2018) applied the work done in Cherry et al (2019) to a calibrated and validated hydrologic model in PCSWMM to assess the impacts of infill development on current stormwater runoff volumes [53,56]. Panos et al (2018) developed a Current Baseline scenario and represented the Berkeley watershed land use and runoff volumes in 2014 with an assumption that no infill development had taken place [53].…”

“…A small area of vacant open space is also redeveloped to residential land use ( Table 1). The impacts of redevelopment include surcharging or overflowing of the stormwater drainage network and increased risk of flooding and thus the need for planning-level stormwater management [53,56].…”

SWMM Sensitivity to LID Siting and Routing Parameters: Implications for Stormwater Regulatory Compliance

“…Panos et al (2018) investigated the impacts of redevelopment on stormwater runoff for the 419‐ha Berkeley neighborhood of northwest Denver, Colorado using future predictions of parcel‐scale impervious cover change (Cherry et al 2019). A calibrated Storm Water Management Model for PC (PCSWMM) was used to quantify the runoff produced from a range of 24‐h design storms and predicted increases of 0.91%–1.63% in stormwater runoff volume per 1% increase in impervious area due to redevelopment (Panos et al 2018).…”